Coastal Flood Statement 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
555 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-011700-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
555 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH. TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AND A SLIGHTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SHORT
LIVED TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG STORMS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
COMBINED WITH A HIGHLY DIVERGENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS
WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH ABOUT HALF OF AN INCH
TO ONE INCH EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL RESULT
IN DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS
AS WELL AS TAMPA BAY AND INLAND WATER WAYS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED MARINE
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF STRONGER
STORMS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINERS PLANNING TRIPS INTO THE GULF TODAY AND
TONIGHT MAY WANT TO POSTPONE THEIR TRIPS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SUBSIDE LATER ON FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING BY TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SOUTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL
DYNAMICS AND LIFT WILL BE MUCH LESS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS.

WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. OVER THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
222 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

FLZ049>051-012030-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-
222 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF
PINELLAS...CENTRAL WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND PASCO COUNTIES...

A LINE OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING SAFETY
HARBOR...PINELLAS PARK...LEALMAN AND LARGO...CLEARWATER...TAMPA AND
MOST OF CENTRAL WESTERN PASCO UNTIL 330 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. WHEN USING WIPERS...TURN ON
HEADLIGHTS. AVOID DRIVING THROUGH PUDDLES THAT COULD HIDE POTHOLES OR
CAUSE HYDROPLANING.

SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE DIE IN WEATHER RELATED AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS
EACH YEAR... MANY DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND WET ROADS.

REMEMBER: VISIBILITY AND TRACTION LEAVE TIME FOR REACTION

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-020330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
250 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY ON FRIDAY. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...AND A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL RAINS...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SHORT
LIVED TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG STORMS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COMBINED
WITH A HIGHLY DIVERGENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST WITH ABOUT HALF OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AS WELL AS TAMPA BAY AND
INLAND WATER WAYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30
KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED MARINE WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF STRONGER STORMS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IF
POSSIBLE UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SUBSIDE LATER
ON FRIDAY.

IN ADDITION THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS COULD HELP TO PILE WATER ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST FROM PASCO
COUNTY NORTH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE HIGH
TIDE AT CEDAR KEY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT 105 AM FRIDAY MORNING...AT
BAYPORT 1259 AM FRIDAY MORNING...AT HOMOSASSA 413 AM FRIDAY MORNING...AND
NEW PORT RICHEY AT 1204 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG
THE COAST SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MCMICHAEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-020330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
250 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH.

RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH
THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY
AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY ON FRIDAY.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AND A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS BEING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL
RAINS...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SHORT LIVED TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG STORMS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
COMBINED WITH A HIGHLY DIVERGENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL
AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH ABOUT HALF OF AN INCH TO ONE
INCH EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AS WELL AS TAMPA BAY
AND INLAND WATER WAYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30
KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED MARINE WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF STRONGER STORMS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IF
POSSIBLE UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SUBSIDE LATER ON
FRIDAY.

IN ADDITION THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS COULD HELP TO PILE WATER ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST FROM PASCO
COUNTY NORTH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE HIGH
TIDE AT CEDAR KEY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT 105 AM FRIDAY MORNING...AT
BAYPORT 1259 AM FRIDAY MORNING...AT HOMOSASSA 413 AM FRIDAY
MORNING...AND NEW PORT RICHEY AT 1204 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS
LIVING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND OR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MCMICHAEL