Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS52 KTAE 191936
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ALC031-045-191944-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-070619T2000Z/
DALE AL-COFFEE AL-
234 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COFFEE AND DALE COUNTIES IS 
CANCELLED...

AT 234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS INDICATED
THAT THE STORM PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ACROSS COFFEE COUNTY
HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS COFFEE AND DALE COUNTIES MAY STILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. 

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3162 8613 3140 8616 3138 8548 3162 8549

$$

9-FOURNIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXTENDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO GIVING WAY TO
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONES TO TWEAK THE WX GRIDS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING (T=87, TD=72) GIVES A CAPE VALUE OF ALMOST
3400 J/KG, PWAT JUST BELOW TWO INCHES (1.91), AND A LIFTED INDEX
OF -7.35. VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVERAGE JUST WEST OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY DIFFICULT TAF PACKAGE AS VIS AND CIGS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF EXTENDED VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THIS MORNING AT THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES...BEFORE THE
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
INTERFERING WITH BOTH GENERAL AND COMMERCIAL AVIATION.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GMZ...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...GOULD
UPDATE...GIBBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-201000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007 /500 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND RAIN RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN SO DRY THIS
YEAR...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FLOODING OF
LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS THAT
GET THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER TO THE
WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS MAY APPROACH CAUTION LEVELS AT TIMES BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOW CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

18-WOOL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
226 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ALZ065-066-068-191930-
COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-
126 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE...DALE...AND GENEVA
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

AT 120 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN COFFEE AND
WESTERN GENEVA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY 2 PM CDT.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

ALSO...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

9-FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
304 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

FLZ018-019-192000-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-
304 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON AND MADISON
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
NORTH OF MONTICELLO TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF MONTICELLO...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

ALSO...NEARLY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH
THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

9-FOURNIER