Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED LONG TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
130 AM EST MON NOV 26 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR ANALYSES DEPICT THE
CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NRN TX...WHICH
CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD ERN OK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SERN STATES IS SLOWLY YIELDING TO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED
LOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME NWRN MS HAS A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF...AND A WARM FRONT EWD ALONG THE FL
PANHANDLE COAST AND ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA. A SQUALL LINE OF
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS EXTENDS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM ERN MS/WRN AL SWD INTO THE NRN GULF. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
LINE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING
STRONG SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME SRN AL INTO THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...SKIES
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH E-SE WINDS 5-10 KTS OVER LAND
AREAS...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
WHICH MATCH UP WELL WITH THE POSITION THE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW AT
06Z EJECT THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH RAPIDLY ENEWD FROM
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY AND OFF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS
TUESDAY...THEN DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS.

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS
EWD AS THE NRN MS LOW EJECTS NEWD AND GRADUALLY DEEPENS DURING ITS
TREK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN PAST MODEL
CYCLES...WITH IT CLEARING OUR WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...AND
ERN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EWD INTO SRN AL/WRN-CNTRL FL PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WHILE THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
MITIGATING FACTOR FOR SEVERE TSTMS...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE
WITH 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THE THREAT FOR ANY TORNADOES REMAINS LOW. THE LATEST
SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS FOR
THESE AREAS THIS MORNING...AND MUCH OF SWRN GA AND THE WRN FL BIG
BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH FOR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE WEAKENING OF THIS FEATURE...SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN ZONES UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NORMAL
READINGS. ACCEPTED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV MOS TEMPS...AND TWEAKED
THE INHERITED POP GRIDS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE...WITH A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY ARCTIC AIR
AIRMASSES CONFINED WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THE OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DRAWS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT. HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FAIRLY DIFFICULT TAF PACKAGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
LOW CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE DEVELOPING WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. CONDITIONS ARE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OVER
THE EASTERN TAF SITES...WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY ENTRENCHED OVER
KABY AND KVLD...WITH KTLH LIKELY TO BE NEXT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. ONCE THE SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS TO THE WEST
REACHES THE AREA...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE OUTSIDE OF THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...BUT THIS AREA MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WELL AFTER
SUNRISE TO THE EAST OF KDHN AND KPFN.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...
AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO RED FLAG CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  72 51 68 44 72/ 70 20 05 00 00
PANAMA CITY  72 51 67 47 72/ 90 10 05 00 00
DOTHAN       69 45 65 41 70/ 90 10 05 00 00
ALBANY       70 46 67 41 71/ 70 20 05 00 00
VALDOSTA     76 52 69 44 72/ 60 40 05 00 00
CROSS CITY   81 57 72 46 76/ 50 40 10 05 00

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY GMZ750-770.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
PUBLIC/MARINE...JAMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
540 AM EST MON NOV 26 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-271100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
540 AM EST MON NOV 26 2007 /440 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS TODAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE BIG BEND COASTAL WATERS.
FINALLY...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE
BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO APALACHICOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

JAMSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
251 AM EST MON NOV 26 2007

FLZ007-008-260845-
COASTAL WALTON-INLAND WALTON-
151 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR WALTON COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

* UNTIL 245 AM CST

AT 142 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DEERLAND...OR 6 MILES EAST OF CRESTVIEW...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DE FUNIAK SPRINGS BY 215 AM CST.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

17-GOULD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
721 AM EST MON NOV 26 2007

FLZ008-261245-
COASTAL WALTON-
621 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR WALTON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 645 AM CST

AT 616 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SANTA ROSA BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

12-WATSON