Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
940 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PULL NE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL OUT
AHEAD OF IT NOW EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS LIKELY HAD PRODUCED SOME SMALL HAIL EARLIER...
BUT THESE HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF S AL...HOWEVER...AND WILL NEED
TO WATCH THESE INDIVIDUAL CELLS CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AS THEY HEAD OFF TO THE NE TOWARDS OUR CWA. STILL EXPECT
THE GREATEST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX THREAT TO BE LATER IN THE DAY...AS
A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ORGANIZES OFF TO OUR W...AND CONVECTIVE
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FROM NW TO SE OVER OUR AREA. OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT
SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONLY TIGHTENING SLOWLY...SCA
CONDITIONS MAY STILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MESSY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR AVIATION. WARM
FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CIGS/VIS WITH THE SHOWERS WITH TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE AND PERHAPS A BIT LOWER
WITH ANY REALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE RATHER GUSTY
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE IS LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TO MID
EVENING FROM KDHN TO KABY AND KPFN THEN SPREADING TO KTLH AND KVLD
DURING THE MID EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND WALTON...
     HOLMES...WASHINGTON...JACKSON...AND CALHOUN.
GM...SCA ALL LEGS.

&&

GOULD/MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
511 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-021015-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
511 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007 /411 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007/

..MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL TRI-STATE REGION...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE
STRONG. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE
LOCAL REGION FOR A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH
RISK AREA COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF ALABAMA JUST MISSES OUR
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ZONES. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA TO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE FRIDAY
AND MAY MEANDER BACK TO THE NORTH BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY PUSHING THE FRONT AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS VERY LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED ACTIVATED AT THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF A WATCH OR
WARNING COVERING OUR REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

BARRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
754 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

GAZ156-011330-
DECATUR-
754 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN DECATUR
COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 830 AM EST

AT 748 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF QUINCY...OR 17 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BAINBRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZED HAIL...AND WINDS GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

14-MROCZKA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1107 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

ALZ065-066-011645-
COFFEE-DALE-
1007 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE AND DALE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CST

AT 1004 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES SOUTH OF ELBA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NEW BROCKTON BY 1015 AM CST.
  ARITON BY 1040 AM CST.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND ARE
ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

14-MROCZKA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1258 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

FLZ007-011830-
INLAND WALTON-
1158 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN WALTON
COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST

AT 1154 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DORCAS...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CRESTVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

14-MROCZKA