Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...11 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FROM NEAR LITTLE ROCK OVER TO BIRMINGHAM AND
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS. A 1010
MB SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR PEACHTREE CITY. AREAS OF 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE WERE ANALYZED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
HEADING SOUTHEAST.

12 UTC UPPER AIR LAUNCH SHOWS QUITE A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH A PWAT
OF 2.22 INCHES. LAPSE RATES ABOVE 800 MB ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND
GENERALLY 6DEG C/KM UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE. MODIFYING A SURFACE PARCEL
TO 92/69 ONLY YIELDS 1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH AN LI OF -5...AND THIS
MAY BE GENEROUS. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY TODAY
AND ONLY OFFER A POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL (DUE TO SKINNY CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH ZONE)...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER WILL FAVOR PINNING OF
THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS NEARER TO THE COAST. THE 30/06Z WORKSTATION
WRF ALSO FAVORS AN EARLIER INITIATION TIME OF AROUND 17Z TODAY OVER
THE LANDMASS. WITH EXPECTED BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE SURFACE FRONT WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP AND SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE CWA.

CURRENT POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH THE NE TO SW GRADIENT.
GIVEN THAT THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE...IM
NOT WILLING TO GO HIGHER (OR LOWER) THAN WHAT IS SHOWN CURRENTLY
ANYWAY. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. HAVE A GREAT DAY

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...EXPECT MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND EXPECTED CONVECTION
TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BARRY
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
441 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-310845-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
441 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007 /341 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. OF
COURSE ALL THUNDERSTORMS POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY
BECAUSE OF LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
134 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

FLZ026-301815-
LIBERTY-
134 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR LIBERTY COUNTY...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF BLOUNTSTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

ALSO...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER
ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

12-WATSON