Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
550 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...RAINY PERIOD ON TAP THROUGH REST OF WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBO OF UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING H5 SHORT WAVE GENERATING
HIGH CAPES/GOOD PVA/SW FLOW ALOFT PLUS GOOD DIURNAL HEATING AND S/SE
FLOW BELOW PRODUCED SCT-NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS CWA SAT AFTN.

STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE PULSE STORMS DEVELOPED IN MOIST AIR WHERE
AFTN TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ML CAPES
1500-2000 J/KG AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM SUFFICIENT FOR
SMALL HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. INTENSE LIGHTNING OCCURRED WITH
THESE STORMS. FOR EXAMPLE DURING LATE AFTN...2116 STRIKES WERE
INDICATED IN ONE HOUR IN BOX FROM SW WAKULLA THRU ERN FRANKLIN TO SE
LIBERTY COUNTIES. PER RADAR SIGNATURES...WATERSPOUTS ALSO LIKELY
OCCURRED WERE NEAR ALLIGATOR POINT-CARRABELLE AREA.

.AT UPPER LEVELS...
VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER SW CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
BROAD H5/H2 TROUGH OVER THE EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING TEXAS
INTO LA PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. ASSOCD
UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY MOVED OUT OF SRN PLAINS AND OPENED INTO TROUGH
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE THAT BEGINS EWD JAUNT. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH OVER LWR MS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BE ANCHORED OVER EAST WITH
AXIS FROM GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER SHORTWAVE TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES EAST. AND...THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-G
FORCING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF TX SHORT WAVE WITH SW FLOW
SPREADING EWD. LATEST GUIDANCE FORECASTS THIS SHORT WAVE TO CUT OFF
OVER EXTREME WESTERN AL SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONFINE THE BULK OF THE
Q-G FORCING TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

UPPER TROF FORECAST TO RETROGRADE W OVER SUN-MON WITH AN UPPER HIGH
AND RISING HEIGHTS BUILDING WWD FROM THE ATLC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
POPS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS ERN THIRD OF CWA ON SUN AND ACROSS
ALL OF CWA ON MONDAY.

.AT LOWER LEVELS...
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DECAYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST
TX...THROUGH CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL GA...AND OFF THE COAST OF SC.
THIS FRONT SEPARATES SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO ITS NORTH FROM A VERY
MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SET UP FROM
VLD-VCNTY TLH. LATEST PIX IMPLY THAT TROUGH BACKING UP IN RESPONSE
TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.

ON SUNDAY...THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND VECTOR WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY OUR WETTEST SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN
(FOR SEA BREEZE-RELATED RAINFALL). THE ONLY APPARENT LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE THAT...ACCORDING
TO THE NAM AND GFS...WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST. BY
MONDAY...THE Q-G FORCING WILL DIMINISH AND THE FORCING FOR DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND REST OF TONIGHT)
THE POP WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TONIGHT DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-G FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WITH PROLONGED RAIN
EVENT...NEED TO KEEP EYE ON AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING..ESPECIALLY
IN AREA WHERE AMPLE RAINS FEEL ON SAT LIKE SE BIG BEND AND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF FLA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND. WATERSPOUTS REMAINS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW FACING COASTLINES WHERE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAX OCCURS MIDNIGHT-6 AM. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE
EVENING WORDING AND TWEAK REST OF TONIGHT POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG/MIST WITH MVFR VSBYS FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KPFN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KDHN BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z SUNDAY. THEN VFR INTO EARLY AFTN BEFORE
ANOTHER BOUT OF SCT-NMRS STORMS ESPECIALLY SE ALA/SW GA WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AREAWIDE WITH LCL IFR IN STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO MOIST FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GMZ750...NONE.
GMZ755...NONE.
GMZ770...NONE.
GMZ775...NONE.

&&

BLOCK/GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
507 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-150900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
507 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007 /407 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALTHOUGH A
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF STRONG STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGER
LIMBS AND TREES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE LATER
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE REGION TODAY
STALLS TO OUR WEST. ONCE AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS.

MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. OVERALL COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS WILL THEN BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

MROCZKA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

FLZ015-142215-
FRANKLIN-
515 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY IN
NORTH FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

AT 511 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARRABELLE...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTH OF CARRABELLE BY 600 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
520 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

FLZ007-008-142215-
COASTAL WALTON-INLAND WALTON-
420 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR WALTON COUNTY IN THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

AT 415 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DEERLAND...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CRESTVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
539 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             MOSSY HEAD              30.74N 86.32W
07/14/2007  M0.88 INCH       WALTON             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN MOSSY HEAD.

&&

GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
553 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

GAZ120-142300-
QUITMAN-
553 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR QUITMAN COUNTY IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

AT 450 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EUFAULA...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

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