Red Flag Warning 98, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
209 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TODAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE. MOISTURE AND
LIFT MORE LIMITED THAN YESTERDAY SO CONVECTION IS SPARSE THUS
FAR. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE GULF SEABREEZE AND OVER
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.

NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH STILL IN
PLACE BUT ATMOSPHERE REMAINING A LITTLE TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH MAY HELP FOCUS
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS THERE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 90
DEGREES.

UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT FOR SATURDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY...CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE TAKES ITS PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FOR MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
SFC TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD HELP
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TOWARDS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME VALUES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCT TSTMS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SW AND SCNTRL GA AND THE ERN FL
BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL RIPPLE SWD ACROSS THE AREA.
ACTIVE SEA BREEZES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRY TO PUSH INLAND
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO HELP TO FOCUS SOME SCT CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST...INCLUDING
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. FOR FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A
FEW SITES TO HAVE MVFR VSBYS DUE TO MORNING MIST/FOG...ESPECIALLY
VLD, ABY AND TLH.

&&

.MARINE...STILL NO CONCERNS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF COULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE WILL CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO KEEP RH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  65  91  67  92  69 /  20  20  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY  71  88  73  90  72 /  20  20  20  10  10
DOTHAN       67  90  67  92  69 /  10  30  20  10   0
ALBANY       65  90  67  92  69 /  10  20  20  10   0
VALDOSTA     63  89  67  91  67 /  20  20  20  10   0
CROSS CITY   64  90  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

CAMP/WATSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
545 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-151000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-APALACHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
545 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007 /445 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WILL ENHANCE THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST SEA BREEZES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS BECOMING STRONG...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY ENDING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE BEACHES OF
WALTON...BAY...GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAKER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR ALOFT ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED...ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND
COUNTIES...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

JAMSKI