Red Flag Warning 79, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
227 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...WITH INCREASING WINDS MUCH OF THE SMOKE DISPERSED TODAY
AROUND NOON...UNTIL AROUND 9 TONIGHT WHEN WINDS DROPPED
OFF...ALLOWING MORE OF THE SMOKE THAT MOVED WESTWARD TO FILTER IN
AND SETTLE TO THE SURFACE. STRATUS CLOUDS MOVED WESTWARD AND
DISSIPATED EARLY IN THE DAY...GIVING WAY TO A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS.
15/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED CENTER OF RIDGE STATIONED JUST TO THE
WEST OF TALLAHASSEE WITH AREAS WEST OF THAT SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY PRODUCING COPIOUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY).
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING
MORE SMOKE OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON MEANING LIGHTER WINDS...WHICH
WILL HELP IN BATTLING THE FIRES.

TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON CU ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THAT SHOULD GET GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN HERE
WITH THE MAV ONCE AGAIN BEING THE WARMEST OF THE GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AGO WAS A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
SO DECIDED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
ADDITIONALLY...BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM TODAY...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT
THE DEWPOINT GRIDS IN THE MAV/MET A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS WILL
HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS TO BE DESCRIBED BELOW.

TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PICK UP A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND BRING IN MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MIN TEMPERATURES AND
HAVE GENERALLY STAYED AT...OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE MAV
GUIDANCE. THIS ALSO INCLUDES A PERSISTENCE APPROACH BASED ON WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY SMOKE THAT DISPERSES
WESTWARD SHOULD ALSO SETTLE TOWARD THE SURFACE IN THE EVENING AND
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND LIFT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...IM MORE
INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE GFS DEPICTION. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE AND GO FOR THUNDERSTORMS HERE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER WEST DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN
CWA...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT AS I CANT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO. WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE HERE DUE TO THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY...THE NAM IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE GFS UPPER TROF SEEMS TO BE DEEPER AND
INVOLVED IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...SO I DISCOUNTED THE NAM
SOLUTION HERE. THE MET POPS LOOK A LITTLE TOO WET...SO DID A
WEIGHTED BLEND BETWEEN THE MAV/MET. THIS GIVES 30 POPS IN THE EAST
WITH 20 POPS ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BRING IN PLENTY OF
DRIER AIR OVER THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON...SO REMOVED POPS THERE.
THE COMBINATION OF A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY AFTERNOON
HEATING COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST...SO WILL
LEAVE A 30 POP...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY).
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE RIDGE IS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR TEMPS TO DROP IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. BY
MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST BRINGING A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...BUT NO FORCING MECHANISM EXISTS FOR PRECIP
SO WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SMOKE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO START OUT STRAIGHT
EASTERLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. THIS...ALONG WITH A SEABREEZE...MAY HELP TO CLEAR THINGS
OUT SOME AT PFN BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE SAME TOKEN...CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FARTHER NORTH AT ABY. VLD
LIKELY TO REMAIN SOCKED IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ONCE AGAIN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE AT ALL BUT VLD TODAY. VLD WILL
HAVE SOME LOWER CIGS EARLY ON FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ARE STILL BELOW
15KTS...BUT THEY SHOULD COME UP A LITTLE SO WILL REPLACE THE
ADVISORY WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND REMAIN LOW UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. WE WILL EASILY REACH
EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY CAUSING A CONSIDERABLE DROP IN WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UNDERCUT DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES TODAY BASED ON HOW
MUCH DRIER WE WERE COMPARED TO GUIDANCE YESTERDAY. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE
EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND (JEFFERSON COUNTY EASTWARD TO THE
SUWANNEE). THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SAME AREAS CLOSE TO
RED FLAG CRITERIA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN AND POSSIBLY CREATES A LONG PERIOD OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  88  65  88  65  86 /   0  10  20  20  20
PANAMA CITY  86  68  83  67  84 /  05  10  30  20  10
DOTHAN       88  65  84  63  81 /   0  10  30  20  10
ALBANY       88  63  87  64  82 /   0  05  30  20  20
VALDOSTA     86  61  89  63  85 /   0  05  20  20  30
CROSS CITY   88  63  88  64  87 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...JEFFERSON...
     LAFAYETTE...MADISON...TAYLOR.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...CAMP
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY/RUBIO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-151000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
600 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007 /500 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL SEND SMOKE FROM
FIRES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED BELOW 3 MILES AT
TIMES...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A THOMASVILLE TO
TALLAHASSEE LINE...SEEING REDUCTIONS TO ONE MILE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SMOKE FROM AREA FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL COME OUT OF
THE SOUTH...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SMOKE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

38-GODSEY