Red Flag Warning 78, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 PM EDT MIN MAY 14 2007

BASED ON METAR/RAWS OBS RH/WIND DATA...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
ZONES.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
355 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS HAS BEEN SWEPT W  AND S OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE FIRES TO OUR E ARE STILL GOING STRONG HAVING
BEEN FANNED BY TODAYS EASTERLY BREEZES. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER NE FL. A BIG UPPER RIDGE IS SITTING OVER THE
SERN U.S. WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SMOKE FROM THE
UPWIND FIRES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT TO ELY OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PULL THE SMOKE WWD ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND THIS EVENING, EXPANDING
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE AND SRN TIER GA COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER JUST ENOUGH TO POSE SMOKE PROBLEMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
SW GA ON TUE. CONCERNING POPS, WELL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
DIXIE THIS EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN OT THE NWRN ZONES WED
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, WITH LOW POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH MON.
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FOCUSED ON
THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. WHILE I HAVE MY DOUBTS A
COLD FRONT WOULD CLEANLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BOTH THE 14/00Z GFS AND 13/12Z EURO DEPICT A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 14/00Z EURO ALSO INDICATES A CLEAN PASSAGE.
POPS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LOW CHANCE (30 POP) AT BEST GIVEN THAT
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED. BY FRIDAY...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS COULD BE IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SAT.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING OVER THE NE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DECREASE THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE
THE NOCTURNAL SURGE TYPICAL OF ELY FLOW OVERNIGHT. WE ARE LOOKING
FOR CAUTION CONDITIONS ALONG MOST OF THE COAST, WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND IN THE NEAR SHORE LEG OFF ST
GEORGE ISLAND. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA BY TUE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN LOW UNTIL THU NIGHT AFTER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WE WILL SEE OFFSHORE WINDS KICK UP TO
EXERCISE CAUTION OR PERHAPS LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT HAS BEGUN TO FAN THE FIRES A BIT ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SMOKE OUTPUT HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY SCATTERED OUT WITH
BASES BACK UP ABOVE 3000KFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE WIND DIRECTION THOSE TERMINALS OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE FIRES WILL HAVE TO BEGIN WORRYING ABOUT THE SMOKE ONCE AGAIN BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THESE INCLUDE KTLH...KPFN...AND KVLD.
KDHN AND KABY SHOULD SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS WINDS DECREASE A BIT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND VEER MORE TO THE EAST AND ESE THEN SOME SMOKE MAY TRY
TO COME BACK INTO KDHN. ONLY WENT WITH IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR
KTLH AND KVLD...WITH LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPFN JUST A BIT
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO BRING
SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS/SMOKE INTO THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE ARE GETTING AWFULLY CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA
IN THE FL BIG BEND WITH THE RH NOW BELOW 35 PERCENT AT 40J AND
WINDS AT 14 MPH. IT IS ALSO 35 PERCENT RH HERE AT THE OFFICE AND
JUST A BIT HIGHER AT THE TLH AIRPORT. THE SWING SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
ISSUE A LAST MINUTE WARNING FOR THE INLAND BIG BEND ZONES TODAY. ON
TUE, THERE WILL BE LESS WIND. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING ABOUT 2
HOUR DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
BIG BEND AND JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE. DISPERSION WILL BE
HIGH, BUT BELOW 75. WE INCLUDE ALL THIS IN REMARKS AND HELD OFF ON A
WATCH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. FYI...THE KBDI IN SE AL IN NOW OVER 500, SO WE WILL
NOW BE ISSUING RED FLAG PRODUCTS FOR THAT AREA IF RH AND WIND
CRITERIA ARE MET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THINGS ARE NOT LOOKING GOOD. THE SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS IN MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT AND THERE ARE ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  62  86  61  87 /  00  00  10  10
PANAMA CITY  66  84  66  85 /  00  05  10  10
DOTHAN       63  84  63  87 /  00  00  10  20
ALBANY       61  86  62  88 /  00  00  10  10
VALDOSTA     58  85  60  87 /  00  00  10  10
CROSS CITY   61  86  62  87 /  20  05  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CDT.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM EDT.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT) FOR
     INLAND WALTON...HOLMES...JACKSON...GADSDEN...LIBERTY...LEON...
     JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM EDT (6 PM CDT).
GM...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...JAMSKI/BLOCK
AVIATION...MROCZKA
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...GODSEY
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-151000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
600 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007 /500 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL SEND SMOKE FROM
FIRES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED BELOW 3 MILES AT
TIMES...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A THOMASVILLE TO
TALLAHASSEE LINE...SEEING REDUCTIONS TO ONE MILE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SMOKE FROM AREA FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL COME OUT OF
THE SOUTH...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SMOKE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

38-GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             8 SW OLD TOWN           29.52N 83.08W
05/13/2007  M0.88 INCH       DIXIE              FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JAMSKI