Red Flag Warning 74, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 091927
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)
THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...HIGH WINDS...AND HIGH
DISPERSION VALUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

.DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH A DRY AIRMASS
TO PRODUCE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. 20-FOOT
WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND DECENT DIURNAL MIXING IS
RESULTING IN HIGH DISPERSION INDEXES AS WELL.

FLZ007-009>017-026-027-100000-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0074.000000T0000Z-070510T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-
327 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2007 /227 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

$$

14-MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED FOR AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...STACKED NON TROPICAL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY
WESTWARD TOWARD THE SE GA/NE FL COAST. MOST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN OFFSHORE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
RIVER...HOWEVER DEEP SUBSIDENCE DRYING IS NOTED ON TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS AND 00Z SOUNDINGS.

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVES IT INLAND OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THE NAM LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH
FLORIDA AND DRIFTS IT SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS DROPS A WEAKER LOW INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY. THE NAM
SOLUTION ALSO HAS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND AS A
RESULT PRODUCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR OUR REGION MAINLY FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. AT THIS POINT I DONT FEEL TOO
CONFIDENT ABOUT RAIN CHANCES OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH EQUAL (ALBEIT
SLIGHT) CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...THE SECONDARY
CUTOFF LOW WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE US
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH THE LARGE WEST ATLANTIC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TODAY...WE EXPECT MOST OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN FROM KVLD EASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KVLD...WHERE OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE CEILINGS COULD ALSO REACH KABY...BUT WE WILL NOT FORECAST THAT
FOR NOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND
NORTHEAST FL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS RAIN
AFFECTING KVLD IS TOO LOW (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE TAF. N TO NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS
BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SMOKE (FROM THE SOUTHEAST GA AND
NORTH FL FIRES) EAST OF OUR TERMINALS...BUT IT WILL AFFECT OUR TWEB
ROUTES WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCEC
CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ALL THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOST OF
THE WESTERN BIG BEND DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW RH...WINDS AND HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES. NO CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  85 62 86 64 88/ 00 00 00 00 20
PANAMA CITY  87 66 88 69 88/ 00 00 00 00 20
DOTHAN       86 61 85 65 89/ 00 00 00 00 20
ALBANY       83 64 85 64 90/ 00 00 00 00 20
VALDOSTA     82 63 84 63 89/ 20 10 20 20 20
CROSS CITY   83 61 85 65 86/ 20 10 20 20 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     INLAND WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...JACKSON...BAY...
     CALHOUN...GULF...GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON
     AND WAKULLA.

&&

AVIATION...FOURNIER
REST OF DISCUSSION...BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
427 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-090830-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
427 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007 /327 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...FLORIDA...SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES TODAY.
SMOKE FROM LARGE WILDFIRES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAY AFFECT AREAS
IN THE VICINITY OF CROSS CITY AND VALDOSTA TODAY...MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE THICKEST SMOKE EAST OF
THESE AREA LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOURNIER