Red Flag Warning 73, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Lee County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 080809
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS 
MORNING TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND 
AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15
MPH AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF MINIMUM 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST 
ONE MORE DAY PRODUCING RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
AND BIG BEND AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. DISPERSION INDICES WILL 
ALSO BE ABOVE 75 OVER NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. 

GAZ120>126-142>145-155>157-090000-
/O.EXB.KTAE.FW.W.0073.070508T1800Z-070509T0000Z/
QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-EARLY-MILLER-
BAKER-MITCHELL-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-
409 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

FLZ007-009>019-026>029-034-090100-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0073.070508T1500Z-070509T0100Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
DIXIE-
409 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007 /309 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...WIND AND HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

$$

BARRY

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 081848
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BELOW 35 PERCENT...20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH...AND HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BIG BEND ZONES.
CRITICAL DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FLZ007-009>012-091130-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0064.070509T1700Z-070509T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0073.000000T0000Z-070509T0100Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
148 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING NOW. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WIND AND HIGH
DISPERSIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS 
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

GAZ120>126-142>145-155>157-090000-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0073.000000T0000Z-070509T0000Z/
QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-EARLY-MILLER-
BAKER-MITCHELL-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING NOW. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

FLZ013>019-026>029-034-090100-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0073.000000T0000Z-070509T0100Z/
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007 /148 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING NOW. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WIND AND HIGH 
DISPERSIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JAMSKI

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 090104
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT AND HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES...

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BIG BEND ZONES.
CRITICAL DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FLZ007-009>012-091130-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0073.000000T0000Z-070509T0100Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0064.070509T1700Z-070509T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
804 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

FLZ013>019-026>029-034-090215-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0073.000000T0000Z-070509T0100Z/
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
904 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007 /804 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. 

$$

SHAFER/CAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
854 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...22 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WELL WEST OF THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND THE REGION BOTTOMED OUT IN THE
LOW 10 PERCENT RANGE. EVEN AT THIS HOUR...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY...EXACERBATED THE FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THE FIRE IN WARE COUNTY GEORGIA IN THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP
HAS GROWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 7 PIXELS NOW OFF THE SCALE (>60C) ON
THE 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE PLUME FROM THIS FIRE IS
STREAMING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ADDITIONAL FIRES CONTINUE IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH THE SMOKE
HEADED THIS WAY. SMALLER WILD FIRES DEVELOPED IN COASTAL WALTON AND
BAY COUNTIES TODAY AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY
FROM KEVX.

00 UTC UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KTAE SHOWS A WELL MIXED LAYER UP TO
5300FT WITH A PWAT OF 0.46 INCHES. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NE
TO E DIRECTION BELOW 5KFT.

THE COASTAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTHWARD TO A
POSITION ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF SAVANNAH GA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER IT APPEARS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST HERE LOCALLY.

FOR TONIGHT...LATEST 18Z MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AT
TLH...BUT IM AFRAID TO FORECAST LOWER 40S GIVEN THE WINDS LIKELY TO
STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MID 40S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD TO ME. ONLY CHANGES WILL BE
TO UPDATE THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TEMP/DPT TRENDS.

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...IMPRESSIVE SMOKE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM CHARLTON AND
WARE COUNTY FIRES IN SE GA IS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS
PACKAGE. NNE WIND DIRECTION HAS KEPT THE PLUME FROM DIRECTLY
IMPACTING ANY OF OUR TAF SITES...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF TWEB ROUTES 112
AND 117 WILL BE AFFECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUES WITH MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. SMOKE FROM THE ATKINSON COUNTY FIRE IS STILL IMPACTING
KVLD FROM TIME TO TIME...THUS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR
MVFR VSBY THROUGH 03Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NNW
DIRECTION ON TUES AS AN ATLANTIC LOW OFF THE SE COAST DRIFTS TO THE
WEST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM THE
SE GA FIRES TO THE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF BOTH
TWEB ROUTES WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AT THE BUOYS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WILL LEAVE EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO SEAS.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...GODSEY
AVIATION...SHAFER/CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
444 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-080845-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
444 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007 /344 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...FLORIDA...SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF MARINE AREA TODAY...

...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES TODAY...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOURNIER