Red Flag Warning 46, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY THIS EARLY MORNING MARRED ONLY BY A FEW
CIRRUS. TEMPS 80S...DEW POINTS 55-60. PERSISTENCE REIGNS SUPREME...
24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON INDICATES NO CHANGE SINCE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRBL TO SE 10 MPH.

.AT UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS N AMERICA. FROM W-E...ERN
PAC TROUGH/LOW...RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...TROUGH OVER INTERMNTN
REGION WITH CLOSED LOW EXITING 4 CORNERS REGION INTO CO/NM...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM CNTRL GULF N THRU MS VALLEY AND
ONTARIO...AND LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY FRI. THEN...PAC
LOW/DEEP LYR CYCLONE MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ADVANCING
SLOWLY EWD WILL FINALLY KICK THE CO/N MEX LOW NEWD AND OUT INTO
CNTRL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS IN FRIDAY. AHEAD OF PLAINS
LOW...SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE EWD TO ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE
SEVERAL VORT LOBES PIVOT EWD OUT AHEAD OF 4 CORNERS LOW.
FINALLY...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN NM ON FRI TO ACROSS
TX/OK BY SAT 12Z. ALL THIS SERVES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE...ALTHO
INITIALLY FOR FRI IT WILL PUSH RIDGE AXIS EWD AND AMPLIFY STRONG
RIDGE OVER CWA. HOWEVER...BY SAT H5 RIDGE FLATTENS SOME OVER CWA.

.AT LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A LOW NE NEB WITH FRONT SOUTH INTO TEXAS WITH
LINEAR MCS PUSHING EWD ACROSS NW TX/CNTRL OK/ERN KS/CNTRL NEB. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM LOW ALL THE WAY THRU NRN ALA/NRN
GA TO BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER S CAROLINA. THE INTERACTION OF ABOVE
UPPER FEATURES WILL SHUNT STRONG CANADIAN HIGH TO RIDGE DOWN ERN
SEABOARD TO REACH NRN MID-ATLC TONIGHT. THEN...BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
BEGIN SLIDING SEWD TO GA LATER LATER THIS AFTN AND TO FLA-GA BORDER
BY 00Z FRI WHERE IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT. HIGH CENTER MOVES TO
GA/CAROLINAS COAST BY EARLY SAT WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWWD AND
ACROSS CWA. WITH UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT OF SAT...LOCAL FLOW
VEERS A LITTLE TO ONSHORE. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOWS NEARLY IDENTICAL
PROFILES...I.E BMX...FFC AND JAN WITH 0.82...0.81..0.82 IN PWATS
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
BOTH GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BACKDOOR FRONT. LATEST TLH
TIME HEIGHT X-SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE (O.85 IN PWAT)...BUT VERY DRY FROM H85-H3 SO HARD TO
SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN WITH BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY WEDGE
IN B4 DISSIPATING PRIOR TO REACHING COAST BY 06Z. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE ADDITIONAL MAINLY LOW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS TO THE
REGION FOR FRI INTO SAT ESPECIALLY NE THIRD CWA. TIMING OF FRONT
WILL ALSO DETERMINE FOG AND/OR LOW STATUS POSSIBILITIES AS ANY
SLOWING DOWN FAVORS REDUCED WINDS AND BETTER FOG CHANCES. MAV
GUIDANCE DEEMPHASIZES FOG BUT HIGHLIGHTS LOW STATUS 12Z-21Z FRI WITH
M/C SKIES BIG BEND AND MOST OF GA CONTINUING INTO SAT AND WILL
PLAY IT THAT WAY. NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH CWA FROM NW SAT NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCE OF AT LEAST WDLY SCT POPS.

.LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH THU.
THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE NEXT
FRONT, WHICH SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA ON SUN.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA ON MON AND THEN
DISSIPATE. KEPT POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. A STRONGER FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT OR THU.

&&

.MARINE....TONIGHT THROUGH MON.
WINDS WILL MODESTLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT, BUT THE
BOUNDARY IS NOT LONGER EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS,
AND WE HAVE CAPPED WINDS JUST BELOW THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE (15
KT). WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN SO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED...OVER 3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONLY A
SCATTERING OF CU DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABY AND
VLD EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. WE ALSO EXPECT A STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW SO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN.
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY SPREAD TO INCLUDE TLH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SO NO FIRE WX CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  59  82  57 81 / 00  00 10 00
PANAMA CITY  64  79  63 78/  10  00 10 10
DOTHAN       59  81  58 81/  10  00 10 10
ALBANY       60  81  57 80/  10  10 10 05
VALDOSTA     59  79  56 81/  10  10 10 05
CROSS CITY   57  79  54 82/  00  10 10 00DY1

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WX...BARRY
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-301030-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
625 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2007 /525 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2007/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 9 AM ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE COULD
BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS...STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

18-WOOL