Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 260104
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
804 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HAS EXPIRED...

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
INLAND FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES DUE TO
EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.
THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTH FLORIDA. 

FLZ007-009>011-261230-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-070226T0100Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0024.070226T1800Z-070226T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
704 PM CST SUN FEB 25 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM CST
MONDAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

FLZ013-016>019-026-261230-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0024.070226T1800Z-070226T2300Z/
CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
804 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007 /704 PM CST SUN FEB 25 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/
TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ MONDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ TO
6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ MONDAY. 

RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

$$

38-GODSEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
137 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF
SUNSHINE HAS HAMPERED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THE LINE. BULK OF
UPPER DYNAMICS HAVE ALSO PULLED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SO HAVE YET
TO SEE ANYTHING APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THIS AREA DID GET A LITTLE SUN TODAY WITH
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

OTHERWISE...FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO HANG UP THE
FRONT AND MOVE A WAVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE DRYER NAM AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF MY
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY. VERY WEAK AND DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH THE AIR
MASSES ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...RETURN FLOW INCREASES THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH GEORGIA. FRONT
NOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY END OF STALLING CLOSE TO
THE AREA WITH WEATHER POSSIBLY REMAINING UNSETTLED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...INITIAL SIX HOURS OF TAF PERIOD WILL BE CONCERNED WITH
THE TIMING OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LINE OF
SHRA/TS HAS PASSED KDHN...KPFN AND KABY. EXPECT LINE TO IMPACT KTLH
FROM 18Z-20Z AND KVLD FROM 20-22Z WITH MVFR CIG/IFR VSBY AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. ISOLATED SHRA/TS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LINE MAY ALSO
MOVE INTO THE KVLD AREA BY 19Z. OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS. CLOUDS DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO WEST AND DIMINISHING LATER THIS AFTN. WINDS THEN BECOME
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE REMAINED RATHER LOW ALL DAY TODAY WITH
CURRENT READINGS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
DECREASE WITH PANAMA CITY BUOY STILL RUNNING AT 7 FEET. MOBILE
BUOY HAS COME DOWN A COUPLE FEET AND EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE INTO
THE FLORIDA WATERS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW SCA TO DROP
WITH NEW ISSUANCE BUT KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION IN PLACE FOR THIS
EVENING. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH RH VALUES
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. FRANKLIN...GULF...AND DIXIE COUNTIES NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH DURATIONS SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE WARNING FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  48  71  47  73  40 /  10  10  10  10   0
PANAMA CITY  51  70  52  72  48 /  10  10  10  10   0
DOTHAN       44  71  46  71  40 /   0   0  10  10   0
ALBANY       42  71  45  70  40 /  10  10  10  10   0
VALDOSTA     48  72  48  72  41 /  20  10  10  10   0
CROSS CITY   52  72  53  72  44 /  30  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM
     CST/ MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
     GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...
     LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...
     WASHINGTON.

GMZ...NONE. &&

CAMP/JAMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
526 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-261100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
526 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007 /426 AM CST SUN FEB 25 2007/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ONCE AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS STORM. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA TO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN PREVIOUSLY ACTIVATED...HOWEVER IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...SPOTTERS MAY NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

14-MROCZKA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

FLZ028-029-252200-
LAFAYETTE-TAYLOR-
413 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR LAFAYETTE AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

* UNTIL 500 PM EST

AT 411 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MAYO BY 445 PM EST.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (850) 942-8833. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
501 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

FLZ034-252230-
DIXIE-
501 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...

* UNTIL 530 PM EST

AT 458 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CROSS CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF FIRST DISTRICT BY 515 PM
EST.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (850) 942-8833. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY