Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2007
Red Flag Warning 126, NWS Tallahassee, FL
NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this red flag warning at Nov 14, 2007, 3:33 PM EST for 11 counties in Georgia; 15 counties in Florida; 5 counties in Alabama. It took effect at Nov 15, 2007, 4:28 AM EST. It was in force for 15 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 14, 2007, 3:33 PM EST (20:33 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 15, 2007, 4:28 AM EST
- Expired
- Nov 15, 2007, 7:00 PM EST
- In force
- 15 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tallahassee, FL
All 31 counties
Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Lee County, GA, Miller County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA
The radar
The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1214 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 9 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS82 KTAE 142033 RFWTAE RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 333 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 1 TO 3 HOURS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH... ...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO POSSIBLE SHORT DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 25 PERCENT COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH... ...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT... .DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY FILTER INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN CRITICAL VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR A SHORT TIME. THESE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PRODUCE POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL HAVE REACHED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE HIGH LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FLZ007-009>014-016-017-026-151100- /O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0104.071115T1900Z-071115T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0126.071115T1900Z-071115T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-GADSDEN- LEON-LIBERTY- 333 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007 /233 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007/ ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THURSDAY ... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH. THIS RED FLAG WARNING REPLACES THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ FLZ015-027-151100- /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0126.071115T1900Z-071115T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ FRANKLIN-WAKULLA- 333 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ ALZ065>069-151100- /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1700Z-071116T2200Z/ /O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0104.071115T2000Z-071115T2300Z/ COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON- 233 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO POSSIBLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING 25 PERCENT FOR A 1 TO 2 HOUR DURATION COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ FLZ018-019-028-029-034-151100- /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ JEFFERSON-MADISON-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE- 333 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-151100- /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1700Z-071116T2200Z/ QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER- TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK- BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- 333 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ 14-MROCZKA
3 follow-up statements
000 WWUS82 KTAE 150928 RFWTAE RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 428 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007 ...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FROM 12 PM CST UNTIL 6 PM CST FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES... ...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FROM 2 PM EDT UNTIL 7 PM EST FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES... ...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FROM 2 PM CST UNTIL 4 PM CST FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 20 MPH... ...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FROM 3 PM EST UNTIL 5 PM EST FOR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER... DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 20 MPH... ...A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT... .A DRY AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TO PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON FRIDAY REDUCING WIND SPEEDS...BUT KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTH FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. FLZ015>017-026-027-160000- /O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ /O.EXT.KTAE.FW.W.0126.071115T1900Z-071116T0000Z/ FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA- 428 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM FOR LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. $$ FLZ018-019-028-029-160000- /O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ /O.EXB.KTAE.FW.W.0126.071115T1900Z-071116T0000Z/ JEFFERSON-MADISON-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE- 428 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. $$ FLZ007-009>014-160000- /O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ /O.EXT.KTAE.FW.W.0126.071115T1800Z-071116T0000Z/ INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF- 328 AM CST THU NOV 15 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 10 AM UNTIL 5 PM DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. $$ FLZ034-160000- /O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1600Z-071116T2300Z/ DIXIE- 428 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. $$ ALZ065>069-160000- /O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0104.071115T2000Z-071115T2300Z/ /O.EXB.KTAE.FW.W.0126.071115T2000Z-071115T2200Z/ /O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1700Z-071116T2200Z/ COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON- 328 AM CST THU NOV 15 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 20 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ GAZ120>126-142>144-155-160000- /O.EXB.KTAE.FW.W.0126.071115T2000Z-071115T2200Z/ /O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1700Z-071116T2200Z/ QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-EARLY-MILLER- BAKER-SEMINOLE- 428 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 20 MPH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ GAZ127>131-145>148-156>161-160000- /O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1700Z-071116T2200Z/ WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- 428 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ 38-GODSEY
000 WWUS82 KTAE 152240 RFWTAE RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 540 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007 ...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES... ...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINING WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES... ...A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT... ...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT... .DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REDUCING WIND SPEEDS...BUT KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-162200- /O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0105.071116T1700Z-071116T2200Z/ /O.EXB.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1700Z-071116T2200Z/ COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- 540 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007 /440 PM CST THU NOV 15 2007/ ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ FRIDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. $$ FLZ007-009>011-013-016>019-026>029-170000- /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0106.071117T1600Z-071117T2300Z/ /O.EXT.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1600Z-071117T0000Z/ /O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0126.000000T0000Z-071116T0000Z/ INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE- 540 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007 /440 PM CST THU NOV 15 2007/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM FOR LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ FLZ012-014-015-170000- /O.EXT.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1600Z-071117T0000Z/ /O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0126.000000T0000Z-071116T0000Z/ BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN- 540 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007 /440 PM CST THU NOV 15 2007/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM FOR LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. $$ FLZ034-170000- /O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0106.071117T1600Z-071117T2300Z/ /O.EXT.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1600Z-071117T0000Z/ DIXIE- 540 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$
000 WWUS82 KTAE 160004 RFWTAE RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 704 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007 ...A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT... ...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT... .DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REDUCING WIND SPEEDS...BUT KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. FLZ007-009>011-013-016>019-026>029-170000- /O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0126.000000T0000Z-071116T0000Z/ /O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1600Z-071117T0000Z/ /O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0106.071117T1600Z-071117T2300Z/ INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE- 704 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007 /604 PM CST THU NOV 15 2007/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ FLZ012-014-015-170000- /O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0126.000000T0000Z-071116T0000Z/ /O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1600Z-071117T0000Z/ BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN- 704 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007 /604 PM CST THU NOV 15 2007/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. $$ FLZ034-170000- /O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1600Z-071117T0000Z/ /O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0106.071117T1600Z-071117T2300Z/ DIXIE- 704 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-162200- /O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0127.071116T1700Z-071116T2200Z/ COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- 704 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007 /604 PM CST THU NOV 15 2007/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ FRIDAY... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ FRIDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. $$ CAMP/RUBIO
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST, 1 hour 33 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS..SKIS WERE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
MARRED BY A FEW CIRRUS. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 70S COAST...UPPER
70S INLAND. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY SW 5 TO 10 MPH.
.AT UPPER LEVELS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW FAST SPLIT FLOW OVER CONUS. MAIN
FEATURES INCLUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL CONUS
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCD STRONG SHORTWAVE/120 KT JET DIVING DOWN WILL
AMPLIFY TROUGH INTO GREAT LAKES-MID MS/OH VALLEYS THRU 12Z
THURS...AND AMPLIFY IT FURTHER TO ERN CONUS BY 18Z THURS...AND TO
WRN ATLC BY 16Z FRI. WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CNTRL GULF NNW
THRU TX WILL BE SHUNTED EWD. WEAK RIDGING ACROSS SE CONUS PUSHED
OFFSHORE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ABOVE SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH ERN CONUS TONIGHT. LOOKING FARTHER
AHEAD...CUT OFF LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF CENTRAL BAJA
WILL EJECT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NORTHERN MX AND THEN REACH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO GREATLY WEAKEN THIS
FEATURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION REDUCING ANY CHANCES
OF LONGER TIME LOCAL PRECIP.
.AT LOWER LEVELS...
MAIN FEATURES ARE LARGE RIDGE NRN ROCKIES TO SRN PLAINS...
DOWNSTREAM COLD FRONT (CURRENTLY GREAT LAKES SWWD THRU LWR MS
VALLEY) MOVING RAPIDLY ESE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED
CONVECTIONS...AND FINALLY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS FL
AND MUCH OF THE GULF YIELDING VERY WEAK GRADIENTS. CURRENT 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT REGIONAL AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY
WITH ONLY MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE SE-NW..I.E. BMX 1.17 JAN 1.16
FFC 1.05 AND TLH WITH 0.94 INCH PWATS. COMBINATION OF RIDGE BUILDING
SEWD AND ABOVE SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT WILL KICK ERN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING AND ALLOW FRONT TO RAPIDLY PASS SEWD
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND RACE TOWARDS S FL. BY THE TIME
IT REACHES CWA...WILL HAVE LOST MUCH OF ITS ENERGY. IN WAKE OF
FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN COLD CONTINENTAL AIR WITH
ASSOCD SURFACE RIDGE TO REACH CWA BY FRI EVENING. THIS ALL REFLECTED
IN TIME HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. I.E. TLH GFS SOUNDING
WITH 12Z WED...12Z THU AND 00Z FRI WITH 0.97...1.43 AND 0.25 INCH
PWAT RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM..TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
.TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BUT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE Q-G FORCING AND CAPE WILL
DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...AND DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE WLY...SO CHANCES OF ANY TSTMS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY
THE TIME RAIN ARRIVES TO LOCAL AREA MAINLY 06Z-12Z AND WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. THE HIGHEST POP 50 PERCENT WILL BE OVER SE ALA
WITH AT BEST ISOLD POPS OVER SE BIG BEND. WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT S/B
AT LEAST 5 MPH SO WILL DISCOUNT FOG ALTHO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE PATCHY FOG SE THIRD OF CWA WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS FRONT EXITS SEWD ACROSS LOCAL
AREA...30 PERCENT POP IN MORNING. IN WAKE OF FRONT...RAPID CLEARING
FROM NW-SE. EXPECT WINDY/GUSTY AND COOL...ESPECIALLY NW HALF OF CWA
AND AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS LOW TEMPS. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH
THE FREEZING MARK AT THE NORMALLY-COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS TOWARDS
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE 00 UTC MOS KEEPS TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. IT WOULD BE UNUSUAL TO GET A FREEZE THE FIRST NIGHT AFTER
A FRONTAL PASSAGE BECAUSE THE WINDS TYPICALLY DO NOT GO CALM...BUT
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE RAPIDLY INTO CWA...WINDS WILL DROP
OFF QUICKER THAN USUAL AND GROUNDS ARE DRY. ALL THIS WILL RESULT IN
A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MINS LOW 30S INLAND
PANHANDLE/WRN BIG BEND AND MID 30S INLAND ERN BIG BEND. FREEZE WATCH
IS POSSIBLE WITH EVENING OR MIDNIGHT PACKAGE. TOO DRY FOR FROST.
.FRIDAY...COOL AND DRY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 60S. MAIN FOCUS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
LATEST TLH MEX AND GFS SHOW LOW OF 29 AND 31 RESPECTIVELY. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PATTERN MOVING SO QUICKLY THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA BY 00Z SATURDAY AND EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE END RESULT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A TALLAHASSEE TO ALBANY
LINE. SO WILL TREND A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE SATURDAY
MORNING MIN. THIS STILL ADVERTISES A LIGHT FREEZE FOR SOME OF OUR
FORECAST SITES.
.SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER SE CONUS BY EARLY
SATURDAY. ALOFT...BAJA LOW MOVING NE BUT WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL
SERVE TO RAISE INLAND MINS SAT NIGHT TO LOW 40S E AND MID-UPPER 40S
W OF APALACH RIVER. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF SE COAST ON MONDAY HELPING TO PUSH
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA. ALSO...ABOVE BAJA LOW LESS AND
LESS OF A LOCAL FACTOR. THUS..THE LATEST MEXMOS DONT HAVE ANY RAIN
CHANCES GREATER THAN 15 PERCENT ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST IN OUR WESTERN ZONES ON
SUNDAY. DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW-SCT
CU BETWEEN 3-5KFT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS BETWEEN 3-8KFT...ESPECIALLY FROM KDHN TO KABY. SKIES CLEARING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING/THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LIKELY).
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TODAY. THEN...EXPECT WINDS AND
SEAS TO RAPIDLY RISE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED WITH EVENING
PACKAGE AND SCA WITH MID SHIFT PACKAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
12Z MAV DEW POINTS A LITTLE DRIER AND RH LOWER THAN MET THRU SHORT
TERM AND LOOK REASONABLE. THUS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND (HIGH ENOUGH THAT YOU ONLY ONE HOUR OF
CRITICAL RH DURATIONS TO JUSTIFY A WARNING) AND THE DRIER AIRMASS
WILL YIELD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN BIG BEND AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. FOR FRIDAY...DRIER AIRMASS FURTHER INVADES THE REGION...RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY IN ALL THREE STATES. FOR NOW FIRE
WX WATCH ALL COUNTIES FOR FRI AFTERNOON. GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY FROM W-E BUT RH DURATIONS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS FL BIG BEND. THEN...AN END TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 56 71 32 65 / 30 30 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 71 40 65 / 30 30 0 0
DOTHAN 56 66 33 64 / 50 20 0 0
ALBANY 57 68 33 64 / 40 30 0 0
VALDOSTA 55 70 33 62 / 20 30 0 0
CROSS CITY 54 75 35 65 / 05 20 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL COUNTIES:
FIRE WX WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL COUNTIES.
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL COUNTIES.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND..
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL COUNTIES.
GMZ750...NONE.
GMZ755...NONE.
GMZ770...NONE.
GMZ775...NONE.
&&
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK
LONG TERM...GODSEY/BLOCKHazardous weather outlook, Nov 14, 4:36 AM EST, 10 hours 57 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 436 AM EST WED NOV 14 2007 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-150945- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON- JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 436 AM EST WED NOV 14 2007 /336 AM CST WED NOV 14 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES THURSDAY. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE FREEZING POINT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. MILDER TEMPERATURES...LIGHTER WINDS...AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP. FOURNIER
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 3:33 PM EST | Fire Weather Watch | TAE | Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun, Clay and 20 more | 26 hr |
| Nov 14, 5:28 AM EST | Fire Weather Watch | TAE | Bay, Calhoun, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson and 3 more | 23 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2007Red Flag Warnings in Georgia, 2007Red Flag Warnings in Alabama, 2007Every red flag warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.