Freeze Warning 9, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EST THU NOV 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...00 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SW-NE
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE FROM PENSACOLA TO ATLANTA AND INTO
WESTERN VIRGINIA. SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO INCLUDE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WERE NOTED ACROSS COASTAL MS/LA. ACCORDINGLY...DEWPOINTS
IN THESE AREAS WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAVE JUMPED UP INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.

NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO
PLUMMET MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN AREAS.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO.

00 UTC SOUNDING AT KTAE SHOWS A LITTLE MOISTENING ABOVE 400 MB (PWAT
NOW UP TO 0.28 INCHES). HOWEVER...A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IS PRESENT
BELOW THIS. WHAT WINDS WE HAVE IN THE SOUNDING BELOW 700 MB SHOW A
LITTLE BIT OF A BACKING PROFILE.

BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS THE NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING. LOCAL
POLICY IS TO CONTINUE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS UNTIL THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE (TEMPS <26 DEGREES FOR 2 HOURS OR MORE). THE
18Z MAV GUIDANCE TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM THE 12Z PREDICTIONS.
MOREOVER...THE OBSERVATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN RUNNING 5 OR 6 DEGREES
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE AT PLACES LIKE TLH AND VLD. WE ALSO HAVE TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT THE VERY DRY SOILS ARE FURTHER IMPROVING THE
NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WE SAW LAST NIGHT AND ARE
EXPERIENCING NOW. THE SLIGHT WARM BIAS IN THE MAV GUIDANCE ALSO
GIVES ME SOME CONCERN ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT TLH IS ALREADY
REPORTING A TEMP OF 42 AT 9 PM EST AND VLD AT 41...THAT A FREEZE
WARNING IS NEEDED. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE
WARNING FOR 2 TO 5 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE INLAND
FLORIDA BIG BEND FROM GADSDEN/LIBERTY COUNTY EASTWARD TO THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. WILL ALSO INCLUDE ADJACENT SOUTH GA BORDER
COUNTIES FROM GRADY EASTWARD TO LOWNDES.

AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ARE JUST A LITTLE WARMER RIGHT NOW AND
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE CHANCES
OF EITHER REACHING FREEZING...OR HAVING A 2 HOUR SUB-FREEZING
DURATION IS REMOTE. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TONIGHT OF SEEING AREAS OF FROST GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS.

WILL BE UPDATING THE ZONES TO INCLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF THE FREEZE
WARNING ALONG WITH THE NEW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GRIDDED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY AS WILL THE NPW.

&&

.AVIATION...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR GENERAL AVIATION ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
(LESS THAN 10 KT) DURING THE DAY AND NEARLY CALM WINDS AT NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS LOW.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...
     HOUSTON.

GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BROOKS...GRADY...LOWNDES...THOMAS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...
     TURNER...WORTH.

FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DIXIE...GADSDEN...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 5 PM EST /4 PM
     CST/ FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.

AVIATION...FOURNIER
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
504 AM EST THU NOV 8 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-091015-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
504 AM EST THU NOV 8 2007 /404 AM CST THU NOV 8 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST (8 AM CST) THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
...AND ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. COLDEST INLAND TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE WILL APPROACH
THE MID 20S.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS REGION WIDE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

CALM WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
LIKE LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST AND
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THESE
AREAS...A FEW NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING
MARK TOWARD SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH A FREEZE WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED...
EMERGENCY MANGERS AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER IN CASE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN FORECAST AND ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING IS NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INTO EARLY EVENING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A POTENTIAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BLOCK