Flood Watch 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEAR
APALACHICOLA AND CAPE SAN BLAS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
APPROXIMATELY 1005 MB. 85/37 GHZ MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY BROAD WITH WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION STILL WEAK. ALTHOUGH IT HAS TAKEN A
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TRACK THIS MORNING...THE OVERALL MOTION REMAINS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND APPEARS TO BE HEADING TOWARD BAY COUNTY.
MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40
MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS OUR
AREA...OR PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
TORNADO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND THESE AREAS ARE RANGING
FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWEST FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE AND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA... ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MVFR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHOWERS...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 KT...GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS...FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WESTWARD...AS REFLECTED IN THE TLH AND PFN TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE COASTAL FLOODING PROBABILITIES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CURRENT WATER LEVEL FROM APALACHICOLA
IS CURRENTLY READING APPROXIMATELY 1.5 FT ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ST. GEORGE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
THESE LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR COASTAL FLOODING TO BE LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT
ALONG PORTIONS OF OUR COAST UPON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT HIGH
TIDE. RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF CAPE SAN BLAS...ST. GEORGE ISLAND...AND EVENTUALLY
ALONG THE PANHANDLE BEACHES LATER TODAY.

SURF WILL REMAIN ROUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AT ST. GEORGE ISLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER WEST TOWARD WALTON COUNTY...CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE MUCH SMOOTHER CONDITIONS
WITH THE OFFSHORE NE WINDS AND A SMALL SOURCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
FROM THIS STORM. ANOTHER THING TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CIRCULATION THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS NOW. CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING
TO FLARE. THIS STORM IS PROGGED TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND WILL LIKELY SEND ANOTHER SOUTHERLY SOURCE OF WAVE ENERGY
TOWARD OUR COAST SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL LEGS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS AND SEAS. &&

AVIATION...CAMP
SYNOPSIS/MARINE...GIBBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
612 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007-009>011-013-016-017-019-026-029-GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161-221000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-MADISON-LIBERTY-LAFAYETTE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
612 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007 /512 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
ORGANIZE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BE MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR POSSIBLE
TROPICAL OR SUB TROPICAL STRORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AT TIMES...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-
221000-
COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
612 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007 /512 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES
TO ORGANIZE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO BE MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR POSSIBLE
TROPICAL OR SUB TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG AT TIMES WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

AS THE STORM MOVE TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY...STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. THESE
WINDS WILL FIRST COME ONSHORE ACROSS WAKULLA AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE
THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE...WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN MINOR BEACH
EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

PERSONS LIVING NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

14-MROCZKA