Dense Smoke Advisory 4, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
243 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.SHORT TERM...WHILE A FEW AFTN AND EVENING STORMS DID DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY...THE MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA FIRES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SMOKE. OVERALL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TODAY WITH WEAK TROUGH AT
UPPER LEVELS AND RATHER FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN AT LOWER LEVELS. 00Z
GFS INDICATES MORE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY...BUT SFC WIND
AND VIS OBS INDICATE A MORE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES SPREADING WEST NORTHWEST FROM
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z NAM
WHICH HAS BEEN FOLLOWED FOR TODAYS WIND GRIDS. HYSPLIT RUN FROM
00Z INDICATES SMOKE PLUME TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. CURRENTLY LOWEST VIS IS AT KVLD
WITH 1 3/4 MILE BUT THERE MAY BE AREAS OF LOWER VIS TO THE SOUTH.
WILL CONTINUE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THROUGH 8AM AND LET DAY SHIFT
REEVALUATE WITH RISING SUN.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS NEEDED...SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN IMPROVE A BIT
FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE
POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH AREA BY THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. WITH
WEAK UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE...THERE IS A CHANCE THIS FRONT COULD
STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FEW DAYS OF ENHANCED POPS.
THIS WOULD BE QUITE BENEFICIAL BUT WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL MONITORING THE SMOKE PLUMES FROM THE VARIOUS FIRES
AROUND THE REGION AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION RUN FROM THE HYSPLIT MODEL DEPICTS SMOKE DRIFTING OVER
THE VLD TERMINAL AND NEAR THE ABY AND TLH TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYTIME. WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE CREATING EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SMOKE TOWARD THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS
ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE OBSERVATIONS AT KMGR AND FROM THE AWOS OBS IN
TIFTON AND THOMASVILLE WHERE VSBYS ARE IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY.

WILL PREVAIL IFR CONDITIONS AT VLD WITH TEMPOS DOWN TO VLIFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT TLH...BUT DELAY IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AT ABY...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ISSUANCE TIME...BUT SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE. AT DHN AND PFN...SMOKE SHOULD NOT BE A
FACTOR. AFTER DAYBREAK...SMOKE WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT WITH MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS. BIG QUESTION MARK
WILL BE VLD AND IF IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...WILL JUST LEAVE IN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY THERE.

&&

.MARINE...MINIMAL WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHANGES TO BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR INLAND AREAS TALLAHASSEE EASTWARD. MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
ENOUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TO KEEP
RH VALUES ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  93  67  91  67  84 /  20  20  40  30  10
PANAMA CITY  88  71  88  70  84 /  20  20  30  20  10
DOTHAN       92  67  89  67  85 /  20  20  30  10   0
ALBANY       93  67  91  66  84 /  20  20  30  10   0
VALDOSTA     93  67  90  65  84 /  20  20  40  20  10
CROSS CITY   90  67  90  66  84 /  10  20  40  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BROOKS...DECATUR...GRADY...LANIER...
     LOWNDES...THOMAS.

FL...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...JEFFERSON...
     LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
     LEON...MADISON...TAYLOR.

GM...NONE.
&&

CAMP/GODSEY

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