Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2007

Tornado Watch 734

November 21, 200749 counties in Arkansas; 4 counties in Illinois; 17 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 21, 2007, 12:47 PM CST for 49 counties in Arkansas; 4 counties in Illinois; 17 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 21, 2007, 12:47 PM CST (18:47 UTC)
Expired
Nov 21, 2007, 7:04 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 70 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Greene County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Pike County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Union County, IL, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

34 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 21, 1:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFShannon30 min
Nov 21, 1:20 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHCarter40 min
Nov 21, 1:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFOregon55 min
Nov 21, 1:53 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Montgomery, Pike37 min
Nov 21, 1:57 PM CSTTornado WarningSGFOregon48 min
Nov 21, 1:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHempstead, Howard, Little River, Sevier61 min
Nov 21, 1:59 PM CSTTornado WarningPAHRipley46 min
Nov 21, 2:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Hot Spring32 min
Nov 21, 2:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Pulaski25 min
Nov 21, 2:36 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFulton, Sharp24 min
Nov 21, 2:41 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark34 min
Nov 21, 2:45 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHRipley45 min
Nov 21, 2:47 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGRandolph28 min
Nov 21, 2:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPulaski34 min
Nov 21, 3:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHempstead30 min
Nov 21, 3:06 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Lafayette, Nevada54 min
Nov 21, 3:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKWhite50 min
Nov 21, 3:15 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGrant, Hot Spring, Saline30 min
Nov 21, 3:15 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGClay, Randolph45 min
Nov 21, 3:22 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Dallas, Grant, Hot Spring23 min
Nov 21, 3:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie34 min
Nov 21, 3:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGClay53 min
Nov 21, 3:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie31 min
Nov 21, 4:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKDallas36 min
Nov 21, 4:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGGreene51 min
Nov 21, 4:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGLee, St. Francis62 min
Nov 21, 4:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Dallas49 min
Nov 21, 5:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMonroe, Prairie14 min
Nov 21, 5:02 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGPemiscot43 min
Nov 21, 5:19 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGLee, Phillips71 min
Nov 21, 5:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleveland, Jefferson, Lincoln41 min
Nov 21, 5:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Drew31 min
Nov 21, 5:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMonroe15 min
Nov 21, 6:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGPhillips58 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2007-11-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 91 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2007-11-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 108 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
91 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-84 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
805 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
108 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000
WWUS20 KWNS 211847
SEL4  
SPC WW 211847
ARZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-220200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
       PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
       PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO
DESTABILIZE WITH STORMS NOW DEVELOPING.  WITH SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND APPROACH OF VIGOROUS TROUGH AND WIND
MAX FROM CENTRAL PLAINS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND E OF FRONT
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HALES

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 21, 11:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot and 58 more118 min
Nov 21, 2:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshley, Chicot, Columbia, Lafayette, Miller, Union8 hr
Nov 21, 3:18 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clark, Clay, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 34 more87 min
Nov 21, 5:10 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Columbia, Union65 min
Nov 21, 5:34 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Carroll, Jo Daviess, McHenry, Ogle, Rock Island and 3 more4 hr
Nov 21, 12:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Gentry, Harrison, Holt, Mercer, Nodaway and 3 more5 hr
Nov 21, 5:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCarroll, Chester, Crockett, Decatur, Dyer, Fayette and 14 more6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2007Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2007Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2007Every tornado watch in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.