Alert archive / Minnesota / Tornado Watches in 2007

Tornado Watch 405

June 17, 20074 counties in Minnesota; 4 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 17, 2007, 3:09 AM CDT for 4 counties in Minnesota; 4 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 17, 2007, 3:09 AM CDT (08:09 UTC)
Expired: Jun 17, 2007, 8:39 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

Counties Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

5 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 17, 3:12 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass	63 min
Jun 17, 3:29 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Barnes	9 hr
Jun 17, 3:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass	54 min
Jun 17, 4:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay, Norman	53 min
Jun 17, 4:16 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Ransom	59 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 245 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 65 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -210 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1398 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 121 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000
WWUS20 KWNS 170813
SEL5  
SPC WW 170813
MNZ000-NDZ000-171500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
       SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 310 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST OF FARGO NORTH
DAKOTA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT LAKES MINNESOTA. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...

DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG NERN FRINGE OF ADVANCING EML IN LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER SE ND.  COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /PER AREA VWP DATA/ AND NWD PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WITH NEARBY SFC WARM FRONT...SETUP
MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AS THE
STORMS MOVE GENERALLY EWD...AND DEVELOP SLIGHTLY N OF E WITH TIME.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 17, 2:49 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Clay, Clearwater, Mahnomen, Norman, Otter Tail and 4 more	86 min
Jun 17, 6:51 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Beltrami, Cass, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard and 7 more	84 min
Jun 17, 4:08 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Beltrami, Cass, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 6 more	67 min
Jun 17, 4:18 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Beltrami, Clearwater, Itasca, Kittson, Koochiching, Lake of the Woods and 8 more	8 hr
Jun 17, 5:13 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Clay, Wilkin	7 hr
Jun 16, 9:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Dunn, Golden Valley, Hettinger and 3 more	54 min
Jun 16, 11:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Barnes, Benson, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh and 33 more	7 hr
Jun 17, 5:02 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Billings, Golden Valley, McKenzie, Williams	58 min
Jun 17, 5:40 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn, Golden Valley and 14 more	3 hr
Jun 17, 4:44 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Foster, Kidder, LaMoure and 8 more	91 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2007 Tornado Watches in North Dakota, 2007 Every tornado watch in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.