Alert archive / Florida / Tornado Watches in 2007
Tornado Watch 15
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 2, 2007, 12:52 AM EST for 13 counties in Florida. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 2, 2007, 12:52 AM EST (05:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 2, 2007, 8:00 AM EST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
Counties Brevard County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Lake County, FL, Levy County, FL, Marion County, FL, Orange County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 20%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 10%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 50%
Warnings issued inside it
15 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 12:54 AM EST | Tornado Warning | JAX | Flagler | 21 min |
| Feb 2, 1:12 AM EST | Tornado Warning | MLB | Volusia | 48 min |
| Feb 2, 1:18 AM EST | Tornado Warning | JAX | Flagler | 42 min |
| Feb 2, 2:14 AM EST | Tornado Warning | TBW | Citrus | 46 min |
| Feb 2, 2:30 AM EST | Tornado Warning | JAX | Flagler | 30 min |
| Feb 2, 3:02 AM EST | Tornado Warning | TBW | Sumter | 18 min |
| Feb 2, 3:04 AM EST | Tornado Warning | MLB | Lake | 56 min |
| Feb 2, 3:16 AM EST | Tornado Warning | JAX | Marion | 32 min |
| Feb 2, 3:49 AM EST | Tornado Warning | MLB | Volusia | 26 min |
| Feb 2, 4:10 AM EST | Tornado Warning | MLB | Volusia | 27 min |
| Feb 2, 4:46 AM EST | Tornado Warning | MLB | Lake | 29 min |
| Feb 2, 5:15 AM EST | Tornado Warning | MLB | Lake, Orange | 45 min |
| Feb 2, 5:18 AM EST | Tornado Warning | MLB | Volusia | 42 min |
| Feb 2, 5:40 AM EST | Tornado Warning | MLB | Seminole | 35 min |
| Feb 2, 6:07 AM EST | Tornado Warning | MLB | Brevard, Volusia | 29 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 156 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -98 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 835 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 74 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 424 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 498 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 2.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WWUS20 KWNS 020552
SEL5
SPC WW 020552
FLZ000-CWZ000-021100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1250 AM UNTIL 600 AM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
OCALA FLORIDA TO 50 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 14. WATCH NUMBER 14 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1250
AM EST.
DISCUSSION...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUPPORT STORMS OVER NERN GULF WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THEY MOVE INLAND ACROSS FL VICINITY E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.
...HALESSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 8:58 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Dixie, Franklin, Gulf, Jefferson, Lafayette and 5 more | 62 min |
| Feb 1, 10:27 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Flagler, Gilchrist and 6 more | 93 min |
| Feb 2, 12:47 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Lake, Levy, Marion and 6 more | 28 min |
| Feb 2, 4:35 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hillsborough, Lake, Orange, Pasco, Seminole, Sumter and 1 more | 55 min |
| Feb 2, 10:21 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Highlands, Indian River, Lee and 2 more | 54 min |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.