Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2007
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 5, 2007, 2:09 PM EDT for 4 counties in Indiana; 63 counties in Michigan; 4 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 5, 2007, 2:09 PM EDT (18:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 5, 2007, 9:02 PM EDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 71 counties
DeKalb County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Noble County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Barry County, MI, Bay County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Williams County, OH
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 5%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 5%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 80%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 3:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Wayne | 48 min |
| Jul 5, 3:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Montmorency | 41 min |
| Jul 5, 3:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alpena | 58 min |
| Jul 5, 3:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Midland | 58 min |
| Jul 5, 3:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Saginaw | 93 min |
| Jul 5, 4:18 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | APX | Alpena | 117 min |
| Jul 5, 4:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alpena | 36 min |
| Jul 5, 4:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Arenac | 14 min |
| Jul 5, 5:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Saginaw | 36 min |
| Jul 5, 5:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Genesee | 76 min |
| Jul 5, 6:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Oakland | 81 min |
| Jul 5, 6:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Saginaw | 44 min |
| Jul 5, 7:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Macomb, Saint Clair | 52 min |
| Jul 5, 7:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Wayne | 26 min |
| Jul 5, 7:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Monroe | 71 min |
| Jul 5, 8:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alpena, Montmorency | 44 min |
| Jul 5, 8:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona | 41 min |
| Jul 5, 8:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alpena | 67 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 197 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 118 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -90 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1149 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 36 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 8:10 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dearborn, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland | 65 min |
| Jul 5, 1:59 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Allen, Blackford, Decatur, DeKalb, Delaware and 20 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 5, 6:37 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | DeKalb, Elkhart, LaGrange, Noble, Steuben | 53 min |
| Jul 5, 1:28 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antrim, Barry, Branch, Calhoun, Charlevoix, Cheboygan and 40 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 5, 11:40 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Belmont, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, Tuscarawas | 2 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2007Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Indiana, 2007Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Ohio, 2007Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.