Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264

May 10, 200739 counties in New York; 27 counties in Pennsylvania; 7 counties in Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 10, 2007, 12:17 PM EDT for 39 counties in New York; 27 counties in Pennsylvania; 7 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2007, 12:17 PM EDT (16:17 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2007, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 73 counties

Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Yates County, NY, Blair County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Pike County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Addison County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

35 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 12:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Herkimer	49 min
May 10, 12:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	St. Lawrence	60 min
May 10, 12:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Potter	65 min
May 10, 1:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lycoming	53 min
May 10, 1:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chemung, Steuben	48 min
May 10, 1:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Tioga	57 min
May 10, 1:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Montgomery	53 min
May 10, 1:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Clinton	53 min
May 10, 1:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	St. Lawrence	62 min
May 10, 1:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Schuyler, Tompkins	34 min
May 10, 1:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Schoharie	47 min
May 10, 2:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Susquehanna	41 min
May 10, 2:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lycoming	93 min
May 10, 2:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Mifflin	97 min
May 10, 2:37 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	BGM	Susquehanna	38 min
May 10, 2:42 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	ALY	Greene	6 hr
May 10, 2:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Hamilton	36 min
May 10, 3:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Union	73 min
May 10, 3:03 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	ALY	Montgomery	6 hr
May 10, 3:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Centre	37 min
May 10, 3:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Susquehanna	48 min
May 10, 3:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Juniata, Snyder	72 min
May 10, 3:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chenango	42 min
May 10, 4:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Rutland	49 min
May 10, 4:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango	51 min
May 10, 4:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware	50 min
May 10, 4:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chenango	47 min
May 10, 4:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Schoharie	45 min
May 10, 4:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Otsego	47 min
May 10, 4:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Huntingdon	34 min
May 10, 5:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware	45 min
May 10, 5:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Perry	37 min
May 10, 5:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Schoharie	67 min
May 10, 5:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Cumberland	65 min
May 10, 6:59 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Cumberland	3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 654 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -57 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 725 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 11:48 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland and 23 more	117 min
May 10, 6:28 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware and 22 more	92 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2007 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2007 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Vermont, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.