Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 968

June 2, 200717 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2007, 6:15 PM EDT for 17 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 2, 2007, 6:15 PM EDT (22:15 UTC)
Expired
Jun 2, 2007, 7:15 PM EDT
In force
60 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Tuscola County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2007-06-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 472 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2007-06-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 57 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
472 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-76 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1217 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 022215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022215 
MIZ000-022315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 022215Z - 022315Z

AN UPWARD EVOLVING SQUALL LINE IS LOCATED FROM MONTCALM COUNTY TO
EATON COUNTY IN LOWER MI.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE
OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR WITH NEWD MOVEMENT NOW APPROACHING 30 KT. 
MUCH OF LOWER MI HAS BECOME MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.  UNTIL THIS AIRMASS IS
OVERTURNED IT APPEARS SQUALL LINE WILL ONLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...LIKELY BECOMING AN MCS AS IT MOVES TOWARD LAKE HURON. 
WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

..DARROW.. 06/02/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

42818466 43438510 44568531 45178441 44618343 43248336

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 2, 6:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Charlevoix and 19 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.