Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007
Mesoscale Discussion 968
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2007, 6:15 PM EDT for 17 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 60 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 2, 2007, 6:15 PM EDT (22:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 2, 2007, 7:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Tuscola County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 472 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -76 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1217 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 57 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 66 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 022215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022215 MIZ000-022315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 022215Z - 022315Z AN UPWARD EVOLVING SQUALL LINE IS LOCATED FROM MONTCALM COUNTY TO EATON COUNTY IN LOWER MI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR WITH NEWD MOVEMENT NOW APPROACHING 30 KT. MUCH OF LOWER MI HAS BECOME MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. UNTIL THIS AIRMASS IS OVERTURNED IT APPEARS SQUALL LINE WILL ONLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY...LIKELY BECOMING AN MCS AS IT MOVES TOWARD LAKE HURON. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42818466 43438510 44568531 45178441 44618343 43248336
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 6:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Charlevoix and 19 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.