Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007
Mesoscale Discussion 856
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2007, 12:35 PM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 115 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 22, 2007, 12:35 PM CDT (17:35 UTC)
- Expired
- May 22, 2007, 2:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 115 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Aransas County, TX, Bee County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Victoria County, TX
The radar
The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1543 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -14 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 547 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 84 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 234 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.9
- Supercell composite
- 6.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 221735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221735 TXZ000-221930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL TX/MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 221735Z - 221930Z AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS OF SCENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF GREATER AREAL COVERAGE/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH A N-S ORIENTED CONFLUENT AXIS AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS INVOF MATAGORDA BAY. A MODIFIED 12Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATES LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF MLCINH ACROSS THE AREA WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE TROUGH INTERSECTION INVOF MATAGORDA BAY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. 15-20 KTS BACKED ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL AUGMENT WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OF 35-40 KTS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE. THUS DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...MARGINAL SVR HAIL/DMGG WINDS GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 05/22/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 27839696 27849742 28269773 28699783 29479758 29669744 29529675 28609600 28279617
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 9:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dimmit, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Real, Uvalde and 2 more | 64 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.