Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007
Mesoscale Discussion 813
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2007, 6:35 PM EDT for 7 counties in Massachusetts; 12 counties in New York; Providence County, Rhode Island. It was in force for 55 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2007, 6:35 PM EDT (22:35 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2007, 7:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Berkshire County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Albany County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Greene County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Providence County, RI
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 45 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1392 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 342 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 400 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 152235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152235 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 152235Z - 152330Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERE STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA. A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT HAS EVOLVED OVER CENTRAL MA AND IS MOVING TO THE ESE AT ROUGHLY 50 KT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTION SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER AND VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE 40-50 KT WNWLY FLOW AROUND 3 KM AGL AND THE STEEP L0W-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LEADING CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER THE COOLER MARINE AIR MASS BY 23Z WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS COULD FORM UPSTREAM FROM SRN NY INTO WRN MA AND CT...AND THIS CONVECTION COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...THOUGH THE SITUATION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ATTM. ..THOMPSON.. 05/15/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...BGM... 42197109 41967133 41787173 41747259 41907361 42047477 42047531 42197577 42387609 42857619 43217580 43087497 42897378 42827231 42737126 42637103
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berkshire, Franklin, Hampshire | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.