Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 792

May 14, 20075 counties in Michigan; Carlton County, Lake County, Pine County, Minnesota; 7 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2007, 3:31 PM EDT for 5 counties in Michigan; Carlton County, Lake County, Pine County, Minnesota; 7 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 14, 2007, 3:31 PM EDT (19:31 UTC)
Expired: May 14, 2007, 5:30 PM EDT
In force: 119 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Baraga County, MI, Gogebic County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Iron County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI, Carlton County, MN, Lake County, MN, Pine County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Iron County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271May 14, 4:25 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 281 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1046 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 167 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 141931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141931 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-142130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN...FAR NRN WI...WRN U.P. OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 141931Z - 142130Z

STOUT CAPPING INVERSION HAS LIMITED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR DESPITE NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NRN UPPER MIDWEST. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF NERN MN SURFACE
LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BETWEEN 22-00Z. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY WARM LOW/MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /PER RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS
INVOF MSP AND RUC ANALYZED 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10 DEG C/ HAVE RETARDED
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CU DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED OVER THE PAST
HOUR ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
AROUND 20 N HIB TO NEAR BRD. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /GIVEN THE VEERED WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR/...LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV CROSSING
NWRN ONTARIO MAY AID IN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
2-4 HOURS. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS
THE MAIN THREAT. MIXING BENEATH THE CAP HAS PUSHED DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS TO AROUND 30 TO 35 DEGREES...WHICH MAY PROVIDE AN
ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
WARM/MARINE FRONTS NEAR THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE. HERE...LOWER LCLS
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG WITH FAVORABLE 0-1 KM SRH BENEATH A 30-40 KT
LLJ.

..GRAMS.. 05/14/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...

46949004 47108887 46798817 46088827 45978959 45839052
45849185 45959297 46339325 46869289 47419231 48079130
47929046

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 14, 12:01 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alger, Baraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Luce, Marquette and 1 more	59 min
May 14, 4:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Baraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Marquette and 2 more	7 hr
May 13, 8:03 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Becker, Beltrami, Carlton, Cass, Clay and 9 more	87 min
May 14, 6:34 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Cass, Crow Wing, Hubbard, Itasca, Saint Louis and 1 more	116 min
May 14, 6:49 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Cass, Crow Wing, Hubbard, Itasca, Saint Louis and 1 more	116 min
May 14, 7:32 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Cass, Crow Wing, Hubbard, Itasca, Saint Louis and 1 more	118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2007 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2007 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2007 Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.