Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 49

January 13, 200722 counties in Kansas; 7 counties in Missouri; 17 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 13, 2007, 7:47 AM CST for 22 counties in Kansas; 7 counties in Missouri; 17 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 13, 2007, 7:47 AM CST (13:47 UTC)
Expired
Jan 13, 2007, 11:45 AM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 46 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Barber County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Dade County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Newton County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Alfalfa County, OK, Craig County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, Noble County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Washington County, OK, Woods County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 12:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lamont, OK at 12:00Z on 2007-01-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lamont, OK at 12:00Z on 2007-01-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 148 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
544 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
261 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 131348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131347 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-131745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 131347Z - 131745Z

A BAND OF HEAVY SLEET CURRENTLY OVER NW OK AND SRN KS WILL MOVE
ENEWD THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIKELY OVER NRN OK...SRN KS INTO WRN MO WITH .5 TO 1.5
INCHES OF SLEET ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF
ENHANCED LIFT EXTENDING SWD FROM SRN KS ACROSS WRN OK.  THIS
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF NW TX ATTM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MCD
AREA ALONG WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DDC AND AMA SHOW SLEET
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH A WARM LAYER LOCATED NEAR 850 MB AND A
VERY COLD LAYER IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
ALSO...THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MUCAPE FOR CONVECTIVE
BURSTS. 

SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE MCD AREA RANGE FROM 18 TO 22 DEGREES F WHICH
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MODE IN THE FORM OF
SLEET AND/OR SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SLEET ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR NEAR
THE OK-KS STATE-LINE WHERE IT APPEARS A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 01/13/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

37149348 36339534 35789812 36779892 37779846 38619450

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 12, 6:33 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette and 3 more5 hr
Jan 13, 12:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette and 3 more4 hr
Jan 12, 6:06 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee, Cleveland and 32 more3 hr
Jan 13, 6:28 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 21 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.