Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 331

March 23, 20078 counties in Colorado; Cheyenne County, Kansas; 9 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 23, 2007, 6:29 PM MDT for 8 counties in Colorado; Cheyenne County, Kansas; 9 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 23, 2007, 6:29 PM MDT (00:29 UTC)
Expired: Mar 23, 2007, 8:30 PM MDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Adams County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Chase County, NE, Cheyenne County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Keith County, NE, Kimball County, NE, Perkins County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 18 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -47 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1866 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 240029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240029 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-240230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...FAR NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 240029Z - 240230Z

SCT TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM THE BOULDER/FORT COLLINS AREA ON EAST ALONG THE I-76
CORRIDOR AND N OF I-70. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER EXPECTED
INTENSITY/COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW ATTM.

LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PROMOTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF A 90+ KT
JET STREAK MOVING NWD FROM ERN NM/S-CNTRL CO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ALONG AN 850 TO
700 MB STATIONARY FRONT CENTERED NEAR THE I-76 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL /MLCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG/ AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z LBF AND MODIFIED DNR OBSERVED SOUNDINGS.
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION. STILL...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

..GRAMS.. 03/24/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

39510141 39330271 39540399 39940491 40210515 41010442
41340377 41550291 41570231 41440166 40930103 40370087

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 24, 4:42 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Yuma	93 min
Mar 23, 7:09 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barton, Ellsworth, Harvey, Kingman, Lincoln, McPherson and 4 more	4 hr
Mar 23, 7:19 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney and 14 more	116 min
Mar 23, 10:04 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Logan and 10 more	2 hr
Mar 24, 1:14 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Jewell, Republic, Smith, Washington	91 min
Mar 24, 5:15 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Cheyenne, Decatur, Norton, Rawlins	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2007 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2007 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2007 Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.