Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 3

January 1, 20075 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2007, 2:00 AM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 1, 2007, 2:00 AM EST (07:00 UTC)
Expired
Jan 1, 2007, 7:00 AM EST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 46 counties

Essex County, MA, Androscoggin County, ME, Cumberland County, ME, Franklin County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Sagadahoc County, ME, York County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Clinton County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Essex County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2007-01-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2007-01-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 81 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1204 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
81 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
215 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 010700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010700 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-011200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST MON JAN 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY/VT/NH

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 010700Z - 011200Z

...FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACK MTNS INTO VT AND NH. HRLY RATES MAY APPROACH 0.05
INCHES...

SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM ST LAWRENCE CO NY SOUTHEAST TO UTICA
AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD SRN VERMONT. ALBANY NY IS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AS ARE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR IN NY.
FREEZING RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN
NY...AND PORTIONS OF WRN VT.

STRONG WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH 60-70KT LOW LEVEL
JET FORECAST OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 09Z. LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM THE
BURLINGTON AND ALBANY RADARS SHOW STRONG VEERING PROFILES...WITH 50
KT SLY WINDS SAMPLED BELOW 1KM. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

WET BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS IN PARTS OF NH AND VT WITH TEMPS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...SO SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY OR OTHER LOW LYING ELEVATIONS ACROSS NERN NY...SO FZRA MAY BE
LIKELY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD
INTO ME LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FZRA MAY
SPREAD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF ME BEFORE 12Z. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OF ICING ARE POSSIBLE...GIVEN HOURLY RATES OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
0.05 INCHES AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

..TAYLOR.. 01/01/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

42597310 43037542 44297551 44977501 45027300 45207138
45297044 43976957 42647083

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 1, 7:43 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndroscoggin, Franklin, Kennebec, Oxford, Penobscot, Piscataquis and 2 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.