Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 261

March 9, 200729 counties in Oklahoma; 10 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 9, 2007, 11:36 AM CST for 29 counties in Oklahoma; 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 9, 2007, 11:36 AM CST (17:36 UTC)
Expired
Mar 9, 2007, 1:00 PM CST
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 39 counties

Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Coal County, OK, Creek County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Murray County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Montague County, TX

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2007-03-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2007-03-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 323 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1493 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
323 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
432 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 091736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091736 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-091900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST FRI MAR 09 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 091736Z - 091900Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN OK AND NE TX. AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION.

FASTEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD
 ACROSS WCNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. A THERMAL AXIS EXISTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE NEAR 70 F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
THERMAL AXIS SHOW CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS AROUND 72 F. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE REACHED BY 20Z SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE THERMAL AXIS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION. THE FIRST IS
NEAR AND JUST NE OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY OK AREA AND THE SECOND IS NW
OF FORT WORTH NEAR THE RED RIVER. IF THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE IN
EITHER AREA THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 03/09/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

35959676 36149623 36119512 35319439 33249535 32939598
32989676 33169733 33519779 33909778

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 9, 3:31 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 3 more6 hr
Mar 9, 4:39 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Muskogee and 4 more96 min
Mar 9, 5:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Muskogee and 3 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.