Mesoscale Discussion 252

Issued

Mar 2, 2007, 1:45 AM EST (06:45 UTC)

Expired

Mar 2, 2007, 3:15 AM EST

In force

90 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 53Mar 2, 2:45 AM EST
• Tornado Watch 54Mar 2, 4:50 AM EST

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 020646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020645 
NCZ000-020815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND NERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 020645Z - 020815Z

ROTATING CELLS OFFSHORE CONTINUE MOVING NWD TOWARD THE E CENTRAL NC
COAST AND THE OUTER BANKS.  WITH AIRMASS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
MOISTENING...NEW TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN NC
ATTM...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY INDICATED.  HOWEVER...EXPECT
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS WRN NC TOWARD SERN VA. 

LIGHTNING HAS RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS FAR SERN NC AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...SUGGESTING THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE INCREASING. 
THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AT LEAST INITIALLY...FURTHER
WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME.  WITH 06Z CHS /CHARLESTON SC/
RAOB AND AREA VWPS SHOWING VERY STRONG SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 40
KT AND INFLOW-LAYER HELICITY AOA 500 M2/S2...TORNADO THREAT IS BEING
TEMPERED ONLY BY LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ATTM.  AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS...EXPECT THREAT TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS E CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NERN NC.

..GOSS.. 03/02/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

36207801 36547817 36537592 35607545 35197555 34537647
34257725

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.