Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 2239

December 16, 2007Aroostook County, Maine; 5 counties in New York; 5 counties in Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 16, 2007, 1:14 PM EST for Aroostook County, Maine; 5 counties in New York; 5 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 16, 2007, 1:14 PM EST (18:14 UTC)
Expired
Dec 16, 2007, 7:15 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Aroostook County, ME, Clinton County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Chittenden County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orleans County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 204 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 263 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Gray, ME at 12:00Z on 2007-12-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Gray, ME at 12:00Z on 2007-12-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 286 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
547 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
86 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
286 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
680 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 161815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161814 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-170015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY NEWD INTO NRN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 161814Z - 170015Z

BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS
NY...EXTENDING INTO NRN ME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR+ (5-8 CM/HR) ARE LIKELY.

DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE FROM FAR NRN NY INTO NRN
ME AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATOP SURFACE COLD LAYER CONTINUES.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
WILL ALSO INTENSIFY A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS NRN NY INTO SRN QUEBEC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYERS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DENDRITIC GROWTH AND AMPLE
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THUS...VERY HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY 3 IN/HR OR GREATER.

..JEWELL.. 12/16/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

46886780 45827006 44837187 43687531 43727627 44257637
45437648 46517391 47537045 47746937 47636840 47486799

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 16, 8:29 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndroscoggin, Cumberland, Franklin, Kennebec, Lincoln, Oxford and 4 more5 hr
Dec 15, 7:43 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Steuben6 hr
Dec 16, 2:21 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chemung and 42 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.