Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 2178

December 2, 20076 counties in Indiana; 18 counties in Michigan; 27 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 2, 2007, 1:13 AM EST for 6 counties in Indiana; 18 counties in Michigan; 27 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 2, 2007, 1:13 AM EST (06:13 UTC)
Expired: Dec 2, 2007, 5:15 AM EST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 51 counties

Allen County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Noble County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Allen County, OH, Ashland County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Erie County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Huron County, OH, Lake County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Medina County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Richland County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Summit County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 633 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 87 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 200 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 707 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 020614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020613 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-021015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CST SUN DEC 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI...FAR NERN IND...NRN OH

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 020613Z - 021015Z

ONGOING SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT OVER CNTRL/S-CNTRL LOWER MI
WILL SHIFT EWD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS THE
LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS. ICE ACCUMULATION RATES INITIALLY OF 0.05 TO
0.15 IN/HR SHOULD DROP TO AOB 0.05 IN/HR BY 12Z.

A 70 KT LLJ CENTERED FROM CNTRL IL INTO SWRN LOWER MI HAS MAINTAINED
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE A SURFACE-BASED BELOW-FREEZING
LAYER...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI INTO EXTREME NRN IND. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LLJ WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
SHIFT EWD FOCUSING STRONGEST ASCENT TOWARDS THE ERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH 12Z. AS SUCH...CURRENT BAND OF MODERATE FREEZING RAIN
CENTERED FROM AROUND 20 W FNT TO JXN TO 40 E SBN WILL LIKELY PUSH
ACROSS SERN LOWER MI INTO FAR NRN OH AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP WARM SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BAND. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT SURFACE WET
BULB TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 27 TO 30 DEGREES...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN PROBABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z.

..GRAMS.. 12/02/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

40848530 41168567 41688554 42168529 42948484 43298439
43348343 42968250 42418271 42098232 42028188 42218111
41958098 41448111 41118136 40878199 40698256 40568386

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 1, 7:21 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Lake and 8 more	5 hr
Dec 1, 11:47 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alcona, Alger, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Baraga and 29 more	3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2007 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2007 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2007 Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.