Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007
Mesoscale Discussion 2017
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 25, 2007, 8:03 PM EDT for 12 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 25, 2007, 8:03 PM EDT (00:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 25, 2007, 9:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Genesee County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 5 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 8 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1352 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 904 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 86 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 3.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 260004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260003 MIZ000-260130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...INTO THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689... VALID 260003Z - 260130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689 CONTINUES. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO WANE... STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN MAY BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE PRODUCTION OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. DESPITE NEAR SATURATED PROFILES AND WEAK TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS...MELTING HAIL MAY BE ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS...AND...IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN STRONGEST ACTIVITY. THIS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE THUMB AREA...POSSIBLY THE DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA...THROUGH 02-03Z. THEREAFTER...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH FURTHER STABILIZATION...AND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO. ..KERR.. 09/26/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41958334 41858421 42098495 42438501 42798432 43148380 43448329 43558275 43518218 42878196 42308264
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.