Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007
Mesoscale Discussion 2
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2007, 12:34 AM EST for 11 counties in North Carolina; 9 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 1, 2007, 12:34 AM EST (05:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 1, 2007, 2:30 AM EST
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Alexander County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Davie County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Campbell County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, Franklin County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 39 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 492 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 266 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 375 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 010534 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010534 VAZ000-NCZ000-010730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST SUN DEC 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC INTO S CNTRL VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 010534Z - 010730Z ROTATING...SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE CELL OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL FORCING NEAR WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF CELL HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY...BUT UPPER FEATURE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR MUCH LONGER. LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WARM FRONT IS RELATIVELY MOIST AND NEAR SATURATION...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK...MINIMIZING CAPE TO A SHALLOW LAYER...MOSTLY BELOW MIXED PHASE LAYER TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WHILE...PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE UNCERTAIN...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION MAY MAINTAIN A FOCUSED AREA OF CONVECTION IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT NEAR 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER AIR AT MID-LEVELS MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS DOWNDRAFTS AID DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD NEAR/NORTHWEST OF WINSTON-SALEM NC/DANVILLE VA...TOWARD LYNCHBURG VA BY 09-10Z. ..KERR.. 01/01/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP... 35928152 36888017 37427918 37327850 36517893 35928010 35588064 35518128
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.