Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 1713

August 10, 20075 counties in Nebraska; 7 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 10, 2007, 4:33 PM CDT for 5 counties in Nebraska; 7 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 10, 2007, 4:33 PM CDT (21:33 UTC)
Expired
Aug 10, 2007, 5:30 PM CDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Blaine County, NE, Brown County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Bennett County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Jones County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Todd County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 164 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2007-08-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2007-08-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 49 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
4321 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 102133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102133 
NEZ000-SDZ000-102230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL SD AND NRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 102133Z - 102230Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM WRN
SD INTO NRN NEB.  A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT INVOF A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS WRN SD...WITH SEPARATE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NRN NEB.  RICHER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT STRONG
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NEB...EXTENDING
NWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL SD.  TO THE W...HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
DEEP MIXED LAYER HAVE REDUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO THE POINT
THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS LIKELY BY 22-23Z.  VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING.

..THOMPSON.. 08/10/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

44900150 44840064 44540034 43430027 42099934 41789993
41820157 42270207 42740222 44710164

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 9, 8:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAntelope, Cedar, Knox, Madison, Pierce, Stanton and 1 more4 hr
Aug 9, 9:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Boone, Boyd, Burt, Butler, Cedar and 18 more87 min
Aug 9, 10:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAntelope, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Cedar and 18 more6 hr
Aug 10, 1:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Boone, Boyd, Burt, Butler, Cass and 23 more60 min
Aug 10, 4:25 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Boyd, Cedar, Colfax, Cuming, Dixon and 8 more35 min
Aug 10, 10:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Brown, Cherry, Grant, Keya Paha, Rock90 min
Aug 10, 12:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAntelope, Cedar, Dakota, Dixon, Knox, Pierce and 2 more5 hr
Aug 10, 5:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArthur, Blaine, Brown, Cherry, Custer, Garden and 9 more6 hr
Aug 10, 2:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCampbell, Corson, Dewey, Edmunds, McPherson, Potter and 4 more116 min
Aug 10, 3:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Campbell, Corson, Dewey, Edmunds, Faulk and 4 more8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.