Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 1613

July 30, 20074 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 30, 2007, 1:18 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 30, 2007, 1:18 PM EDT (17:18 UTC)
Expired: Jul 30, 2007, 2:45 PM EDT
In force: 87 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 110 counties

Dorchester County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Anson County, NC, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Camden County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Pender County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Calhoun County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Horry County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, Accomack County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1030 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 542 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 51 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 301718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301718 
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-301845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SC...ERN NC...ERN VA AND SRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 301718Z - 301845Z

A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM
HAMPTON VA ACROSS ERN NC TO JUST EAST OF COLUMBIA SC. SFC DEWPOINTS
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG ATTM. SEVERAL
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING WITH ONE IN ERN NC AND ONE IN THE
CNTRL CAROLINAS. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
ALLOW STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOCATED ACROSS
SC AND ERN NC WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 07/30/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

34698121 35347963 36027858 37477756 38287693 38517654
38617589 38397538 37747503 36187586 35027672 33677871
33158041 33298113 33658162 34168176

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2007 Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2007 Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2007 Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.