Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 113

February 3, 20074 counties in New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2007, 7:41 PM EST for 4 counties in New York. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 3, 2007, 7:41 PM EST (00:41 UTC)
Expired
Feb 4, 2007, 1:45 AM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Franklin County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2007-02-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2007-02-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 153 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156175Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1805 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
112 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
153 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
130 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 040041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040041 
NYZ000-040645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST SAT FEB 03 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 040041Z - 040645Z

SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN
NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK. RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER RATES POSSIBLE IN TRANSIENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEW YORK...AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT OVER THE REGION.

MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 03 TO 04Z AS
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE WARM /NEAR 40
DEGREES/ LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES. LOCALIZED SNOW RATES
INSIDE THE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR AND AT
TIMES MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY IN ST.
LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...WHICH WILL BE
DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BEST MOISTURE FETCH TRAJECTORIES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE BY 05
TO 06Z IN LOCALIZED BANDS AS CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
OVER LAKE ONTARIO...IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS.

..LEVIT.. 02/04/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

44697537 44837523 44897499 44997444 44927409 44707405
44567400 44277417 44117438 44097465 43897485 43677513
43527538 43477580 43387611 43507623 43717619 43877621
44017621 44167614 44287587 44527562

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 3, 7:31 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Livingston, Wyoming4 hr
Feb 4, 1:29 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, St. Lawrence6 hr
Feb 4, 7:08 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lewis3 hr
Feb 4, 1:24 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming6 hr
Feb 4, 1:48 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.