Mesoscale Discussion 1049

Issued

Jun 7, 2007, 9:23 PM CDT (02:23 UTC)

Expired

Jun 7, 2007, 11:00 PM CDT

In force

97 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 363Jun 7, 10:15 PM CDT

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 080223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080223 
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-080400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL/MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WI/UP OF MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 358...360...

VALID 080223Z - 080400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 358...360...CONTINUES.

VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 358 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS
EASTERN IA/WESTERN WI INTO WESTERN UP OF MI...AND LIKELY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. TORNADO WATCH 360 CONTINUES UNTIL
05Z ACROSS NORTHERN IL/EASTERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI.
WHILE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CONTINUES EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM GREEN BAY/DAVENPORT/LINCOLN IL SUGGEST
THAT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 360 IN NORTHERN IL/EASTERN
WI. FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BE SOME RECENT ATTEMPTS AT
RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WI WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR AND/OR IMPACTS OF
EARLIER CONVECTION SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH/REMAIN ISOLATED WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS
NORTHERN WI/NORTHEAST MN/UP OF MI.

CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA AS OF 02Z...QUICK
EASTWARD-MOVING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
LATER TONIGHT...LIKELY TOWARD/AFTER 06Z. EVEN WITH A TEMPORARY LULL
EARLY THIS EVENING...THIS COULD GIVE RISE TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS EVENING FROM FAR EASTERN IA INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN WI AND NORTHERN IL...WITH THE PRIMARY
SEVERE RISKS FURTHER TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE LINEAR FORCING.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WW 358 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 03Z...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. A REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN IL /POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA/ AND
SOUTHEAST WI.

..GUYER.. 06/08/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...

46329064 46738951 46588824 46468779 45818714 42108839
41598969 41339032 40859159 41439195 43289048 44858987
45688996

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.