Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

000 
WWUS55 KSLC 160346
SVSSLC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2007

UTC021-160356-
/O.EXP.KSLC.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070716T0345Z/
IRON UT-
946 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL IRON COUNTY EXPIRED AT
945 PM MDT...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER SEVERE. THEREFORE THE WARNING
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. GUSTY WIND TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN 
CEDAR CITY THROUGH 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3764 11317 3762 11299 3780 11297 3782 11314

$$

TARDY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
850 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO WESTERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED ITS CENTER OVER EASTERN
UTAH. LESS CONVECTION FOR EAST CENTRAL UTAH TODAY BUT THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DID FORM PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS FOR THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY
AT PRICE. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGE ADVERTISED WELL
BY MODELS HAS SPREAD JUST BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS AND COVERS
WESTERN UTAH WITH 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH VALUES. CONVECTION INCREASED
ACROSS THE NEVADA BORDER EARLIER TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
FROM KANAB TO ZION PARK AND CEDAR CITY. ISOLATED CELLS CONTINUE
IN SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS HOUR AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED
SOUTHEAST OF ZION PARK...AND BRIEFLY OVER THE PARK. ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND SALT FLATS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS HOUR WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE LEADING MOISTURE SURGE. FOR THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE
VALLEYS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED THROUGH AT 3 PM AND TEMPERATURE PEAKED
AT 105F AT 5 PM. A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FORMED 5 TO 7
PM ACROSS THE SALT LAKE VALLEY WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN BUT A FEW CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH.
CELL OVER THE LAKE PRODUCED A VIVID OUTFLOW AND GUSTS 65 MPH AT HAT
ISLAND. 00Z NAM-WRF DEPICTS A VORT MAX RIGHT OVER THE GSL AND
ANOTHER NEAR WENDOVER. THIS CONSISTENT WITH WATER VAPOR. MORE
NOTABLE SHORT WAVE LOBE IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK
LIFT ON THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SURGE IN PLACE.

MINIMAL ACTIVITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAIN WAVE LIFTING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. LOTS OF MID CLOUD AND HOT AIR MASS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ON MONDAY
AND INCREASED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS UTAH. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND BECOME NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON...
AFFECTING VALLEYS AND DESERTS AS WELL WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT
IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AIR MASS REMAINS HOT WITH 18-19C OVER
MOST OF UTAH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VORT LOBE MONDAY NIGHT COULD
CONTINUE NIGHT-TIME CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE MAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OF 0.90
TO 1.1 INCH COVERS THE REGION AND RESULTS IN CAPE OF 500 TO 1500
J/KG. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY STRONG.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN UTAH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS OVER EASTERN UTAH.
THIS SETS UP A BATTLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
EVENTUALLY PUSHING BACK WESTWARD. MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS
AND A HOT AIR MASS OF 18-20C WITH THREATEN MORE RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ERRATIC WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST
WITH WEAK CONVECTION DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIGHTNING NEAR THE TERMINAL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF UTAH
PRODUCED LIGHTNING FROM THE NEVADA BORDER INTO THE SALT LAKE
VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE WEAK (REFLECTIVITY) AND WITH HUMIDITIES
NEAR 10 PERCENT THEY ONLY PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN. ANOTHER FIRE START
OCCURRED IN THE GROUSE CREEK REGION. CELLS OVER EASTERN UTAH
WERE WEAKER THAN PAST DAYS BUT STILL WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHTNING IN
THE UINTA AND WASATCH PLATEAU TODAY AND IT PRODUCED 30-40 MPH GUSTS
AND ISOLATED STRONGER OUTFLOWS NEAR THE MATHIS COMPLEX. 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES HIT A COUPLE GAGES. CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
UTAH WAS STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT WITH WETTING RAINS...BUT
OUTFLOWS PRODUCED SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING ALONG AND WEST
OF I-15 NEAR CEDAR CITY. WEAK CONVECTION IN WEST CENTRAL UTAH IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTNING AS WELL. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS WESTERN UTAH SO HUMIDITY WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT STILL
LOW...NEAR 10 PERCENT.

COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH STRONGER
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN UTAH. THIS BRINGS
A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH AREAS
OF WETTING RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
FOR WESTERN UTAH. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASES AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL DECREASE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEST BUT LOWER HUMIDITY
AND INCREASE DIURNAL WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

TARDY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)