Heavy Snow Warning 3, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
955 AM MST THU FEB 22 2007

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER UTAH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OFF THE WEST COAST
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST
DESERTS AND TOOELE VALLEY WHERE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE
HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. MEANWHILE...GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES ARE IN THE 50 MPH RANGE. WINDS AT 700MB WAS NEAR 35KT AT SLC
THIS MORNING PER 12Z SOUNDING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE 12Z NAM SHOWING 700MB WINDS UP TO 55KT
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA HELPING WITH
MIXING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY PRETTY MUCH
AREA-WIDE. WESTERN UTAH IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WINDY ONCE THAT AREA
MIXES OUT THIS AFTERNOON SO GOING HIGH WIND WARNING LOOKS FINE.
WASATCH FRONT AND WASATCH MOUNTAINS CURRENTLY HAS A WIND ADVISORY
WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE OKAY AS 700MB WINDS THERE ARE ONLY PROGGED TO
GET TO AROUND 40KTS. A FEW RIDGETOP LOCATIONS MAY HIT WARNING
CRITERIA TODAY...BUT WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOOKS TO ENTER
NORTHWEST UTAH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS THE WASATCH
FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH
TIMING BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM WITH THE NAM BEING A
COUPLE HOURS SLOWER...BUT EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
MORNING COMMUTE. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY IN
THE MORNING...BUT PTYPE QUICKLY CHANGES TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODEL QPF IS STARTING TO TREND UPWARD...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
OVER 1.1 INCHES OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS FOLLOWS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT THINKING THAT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AS WELL AS MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MANY OF THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS. WILL PROBABLY END UP GOING WITH A WARNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TRICKIER DECISION WILL BE WINTER WX HEADLINES FOR THE
VALLEYS...SO WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ALSO...A POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXISTS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ADD TO SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE SALT LAKE
VALLEY.

CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. SKY COVER MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY
OVERDONE IN A COUPLE OF ZONES...BUT NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 40KTS
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 03Z...HOWEVER
GUSTS OVER 30KTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12-14Z TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ005-UTZ015-UTZ016-UTZ017.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR UTZ002-
     UTZ003-UTZ004-UTZ006-UTZ007-UTZ008-UTZ009-UTZ010-UTZ015-
     UTZ016-UTZ017.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY FOR UTZ007-UTZ008.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY FOR UTZ002-UTZ003-UTZ004-
     UTZ014.

WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...C. SMITH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MST THU FEB 22 2007

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-231200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
434 AM MST THU FEB 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH ALONG WITH FAR SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
UTAH...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEE THE LATEST
NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD AND MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR FROM THE WASATCH FRONT SOUTH TO CEDAR CITY.
SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. A STRONGER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY. BE SURE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)