Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
318 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2007

.SYNOPSIS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER UTAH WILL HOVER IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FROM OLD MEXICO
NORTH INTO CANADA REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL SO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT SLOWLY TAKES ON A DRYING TREND. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
VALUES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ABOVE AN INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS INCLUDING NORTHWEST UTAH AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WHERE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INITIATED DUE TO GOOD INSOLATION UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER UTAH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH CENTER SETTLES OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND DEEP MOISTURE TENDS
TO FLOW AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
ALSO BEGUN OVER THE SPINE OF UTAH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...DISPLAYING
NO MOVEMENT OR LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH. THIS IS DUE TO EMBEDDED
WEAK SHORTWAVES DRIFTING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AND THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AND DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AIRMASS LOOKS TO CONTINUE DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

RIDGE AXIS WILL AGAIN SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY AND OPEN THE DOOR TO
ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOON MOISTURE. LATEST GFS INDICATES THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS MONSOON EVENT
WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRYING FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. AS UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS UTAH. GUSTY WINDS WILL EXACERBATE ANY
FIRE PROBLEMS PRESENT AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THIS TIME PERIOD...HUMIDITIES WOULD
REALLY HAVE TO TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE AREA TO REACH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE SLC TERMINAL. HOWEVER...WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FIELD...THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY
OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.....YOUNG
AVIATION...B. SMITH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
650 AM MDT THU JUL 26 2007

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-271300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
650 AM MDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH ALONG WITH FAR SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...
THOUGH MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY...BRINGING A
RENEWED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)