Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
645 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH FOR THE BIG COUNTY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY UNTIL
11 PM. SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF BIG SPRINGS MAY AFFECT FISHER
COUNTY TOWARD 8 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE NEAR BIG SPRINGS WILL
NOT BE AFFECTING TAFS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
IN MEXICO HOWEVER MAY AFFECT SONORA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A BIT UNCERTAIN HOWEVER WHETHER THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN KSJT OR OTHER TAFS. IF IT DOES HOWEVER ... COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING. STRONG 50-55 KT LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT...SO ADDED LLWS
04-14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE
FROM KSJT TO KABI TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KBBD AND KJCT WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE PACIFIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE REMAINS JUST WEST OF OUR CWFA...MAINLY ALONG
AN AMARILLO...TO LUBBOCK...TO MIDLAND...TO SANDERSON LINE.

EXTRA WFO MIDLAND SOUNDING AT 18Z INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CAP ALONG
WITH SOUTHWEST- TO WEST-WINDS PROFILE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO
MIDLAND...BELIEVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS LOW. THE
SURFACE DRYLINE MAY MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR CWFA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT IT TO PUSH BACK WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE ONLY 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH NO
MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE PRODUCT FOR TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TO PUSH THE DRYLINE
BACK EAST AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM SLIGHT FASTER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN ABILENE...TO EDEN...TO
JUNCTION LINE. ALSO...WILL MENTION SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PERIODS TWO AND THREE.
TEMPERATURE NUMBERS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD.

LONG TERM...
MAIN FOCUS ON SHORT TERM TODAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
HERE FOR NOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 68  82  54  77 /  30  40  40  10
SAN ANGELO 	 70  85  56  79 /  30  30  30  10
JUNCTION 	 70  85  59  82 /  20  40  60  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COKE-FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING.

&&

99/99/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
317 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-242030-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
317 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE DRY LINE.
IF STORMS DEVELOP...SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS THE
DRY LINE MOVES EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF A THROCKMORTON...ABILENE...
SAN ANGELO...SONORA LINE...EXCEPT FOR A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO SAN SABA LINE. THE MAIN
RISKS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH SPOTTER
ACTIVATION LIKELY ON TUESDAY.