Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

.AVIATION...SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSJT WILL BE THE
INITIAL CONCERN FOR TAFS. ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS.
THESE SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF. MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS MAY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY LATTER THIS
EVENING. STILL ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT WOULD AFFECT THE
OPERATIONS AT THE KABI TERMINAL AND WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

BRAZZELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007/

SHORT TERM...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RESPECTABLE MU CAPE VALUES... WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT
CATEGORY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A DECENT CU FIELD ACROSS MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BECOMING STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE
WESTERN STATES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. THE TROUGH
WILL STAY TO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY RAIN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH
THE  GFS AND ECMWF  MODELS HAVE A COUPLE OF  FRONTS MOVING INTO
NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEK BUT THE MODELS HAVE THEM STALLING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ONLY SILENT 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 67  89  66  86 /  20  10  10  10
SAN ANGELO 	 65  89  65  87 /  20  10  10  10
JUNCTION 	 66  91  66  86 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

27/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
438 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-280945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
438 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY...AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER NORTH TEXAS.
WITH A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...WITH PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
518 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

TXZ072-272305-
TOM GREEN TX-
518 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR TOM GREEN
COUNTY...

AT 515 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 8 MILES NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SAN ANGELO BY 550 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

TXZ072-280000-
TOM GREEN TX-
600 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR TOM GREEN
COUNTY...

AT 558 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 3 MILES NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
COUNTY.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

TXZ098-280045-
HASKELL TX-
641 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWEST HASKELL COUNTY...

AT 637 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF OBRIEN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OBRIEN BY 725 PM CDT
  ROCHESTER BY 735 PM CDT
  RULE BY 745 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

11

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