Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
127 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ZONES/GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR WATCH NO. 426 IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9AM FOR POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A STERLING CITY...
BALLINGER...TO BROWNWOOD LINE INCLUDING ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY.  11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007/

UPDATE...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND PROGRESSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
IS ABOUT TO OVERTAKE IT. WITH LITTLE IF ANY INDICATIONS OF SLOWING
EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF EITHER OF THESE...BELIEVE THE
BIG COUNTRY MAY SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THUS...RECENT ZONE UPDATE INCLUDED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE BIG COUNTRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

23/HUBER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007/

AVIATION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS WAS LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH...AND A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY MAKE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 20/10Z. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS BKN010-020 WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER 20/10Z...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF I-20 AFTER
20/12Z.  21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SIGNIFICANT CAPE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO KANSAS WITH CONVECTIVE IGNITION IN THIS
AREA BEGINNING BEFORE NOON TODAY...MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN PROGD
BY THE NAM AND WITH THE GFS BEING SOMEWHERE IN THE BALLPARK.
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND EXTRAPOLATED TRENDS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT
TERM. A RENEGADE THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FAVORING THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE
FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DRY FORECAST RESULTS
WITH MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND CLIM0...HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 71  95  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
SAN ANGELO 	 71  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
JUNCTION 	 72  93  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
313 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-202015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
313 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ALTHOUGH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS PREVENTED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THIS WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
155 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

TXZ049-054-113-127-200800-
NOLAN TX-JONES TX-FISHER TX-TAYLOR TX-
155 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR NOLAN...
JONES...FISHER AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 153 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTAN...OR ABOUT
16 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAMLIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HITSON BY 225 AM CDT
  MCCAULLEY BY 245 AM CDT
  SYLVESTER BY 250 AM CDT
  NEINDA BY 255 AM CDT
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-180 AND RANCH ROAD 126 BY 300 AM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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