Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
714 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.UPDATE...
FORECAST PRODUCTS BEING UPDATED FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE RED RIVER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO MOVE INTO THE 80S AFTER A MORNING
OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD RECOVER ENOUGH TO SEE RENEWED ACTIVITY
LATER THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. L0CATION OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
MORNINGS ACTIVITY AND PATH OF DISTURBANCES TRAVELING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DICTATE THE LOCATION OF FURTHER
CONVECTION. WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
A CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...FAVORING THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT
FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. WILL
BRING THE RAINFALL TO AN END LATE MONDAY.

LONG TERM...
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GFS HINTS AT A DISTURBANCE
CUTTING INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE MIDWEEK AND
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT UNTIL WE SEE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 67  85  67  88 /  50  50  40  30
SAN ANGELO 	 67  86  70  91 /  50  40  50  30
JUNCTION 	 69  86  71  90 /  50  40  60  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
523 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-161030-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
523 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS. LARGE HAIL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.