Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
353 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/

SHORT TERM...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
FROM STERLING CITY TO JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO TO NEAR BROWNWOOD.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE I10 CORRIDOR. AS THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO APPROACH WC
TX...THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...AND MODERATE BULK SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAF CWA AND TRACK ESE
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WC TX THIS EVENING. AS THE NW FLOW
CONTINUES...COULD SEE YET ANOTHER MCS DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
FOR WED THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT THE CAP TO DEVELOP AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES WSW ALLOWING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 90S EVEN IN ABILENE WHO HAS NOT REACHED 90 SO FAR
THIS YEAR HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTORM SO WILL
KEEP SILENT 10 POPS IN THE PACKAGE. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MEX
GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 66  87  63  87 /  50  20  30  20
SAN ANGELO 	 66  88  65  89 /  70  30  50  30
JUNCTION 	 69  89  66  88 /  70  30  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
225 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-041930-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
225 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IN NEW MEXICO. SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS....ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS
FROM BIG SPRING TO ROBERT LEE TO BALLINGER TO BRADY TO BROWNWOOD.
THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE BIG COUNTRY...IS
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY...SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS SHOULD
DECREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXZ064-032145-
STERLING TX-
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR STERLING
COUNTY...

AT 346 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 23 MILES WEST OF STERLING CITY...OR
ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GARDEN CITY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...
  STERLING COUNTY.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.