Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL OF THIS AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND WILL TAKE ALL THE
WAY UNTIL AS LATE AS NOON THURSDAY TO CLEAR THE RAIN OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THUS...LOTS OF RAIN IN THE TERMINALS...AND
ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2007/

AVIATION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO TEXAS
FROM NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL VARY
CONSIDERABLY TODAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN LATER TAFS FOR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE TIMING BECOMES BETTER
DETERMINED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2007/

SHORT TERM...
WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF TOTALS BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ADDING TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.

ANOTHER WET DAY HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS WEST AND WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS MORNING. WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR
MASS/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LAYING ENE/WSW ACROSS THE
CWA IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND TRANS
PECOS AREAS. STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EXIST ROUGHLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY BEING REALIZED
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN ADVECT
VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AND UP OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TODAY. PWAT/S AT KDRT AND KCRP ARE 1.4 AND 1.5 INCHES
RESPECTIVELY. SHOULD WAA SHOWERS CONTINUE TOO LONG INTO THE
DAYTIME... INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AT THE SURFACE WHICH COULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SOMEWHAT...AND WILL DEFINITELY HAVE AN
EFFECT ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION IS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THIS STABLE AIR MASS...STILL THINK THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE AS ENERGY ROTATES INTO THE AREA
AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IN
MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA. SO...CONVECTION SEEMS
LIKELY AS THE LOW EJECTS OUT AND INTERACTS WITH MORE UNSTABLE AIR
TODAY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35KTS AND 50KTS WOULD
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
SHOULD ANY STORMS INTERACT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES. SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS ONE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND BETTER SHEAR WILL
EXIST. SEE SWODY1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY TRICKY TODAY AS WE COULD STAY CLOUDY
AND RAIN-COOLED OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND IF SUNSHINE
BREAKS OUT OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THEY COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80
OR INTO THE LOWER 80S. WILL FOLLOW THAT PATTERN ANYWAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE CLOUDCOVER IS EXPECTED.
WILL GO WITH GFS TREND FOR WINDS AS THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
EXCEPT FOR WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE GFS HAD A DECENT HANDLE
THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
TX...WHICH WILL MEAN WE WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT IF
THE LOW IS ANY SLOWER...CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR WESTERN COUNTIES
AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER
IN.

WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM...AND WE WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST
GOING. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO NORMAL READINGS OR WARMER
BY THIS SATURDAY WHICH MEANS UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 57  76  60  81 /  70  40  20  20
SAN ANGELO 	 58  81  58  82 /  60  30  10  20
JUNCTION 	 60  78  59  81 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.

&&

07

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1007 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

TXZ076-091600-
CROCKETT TX-
1007 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR CROCKETT
COUNTY...

AT 1005 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSECTION
OF RANCH ROAD 2083 AND HIGHWAY 405...OR ABOUT 26 MILES EAST OF
DRYDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...
  SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1111 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TORNADO          7 NW THROCKMORTON       33.25N 99.26W
05/08/2007                   THROCKMORTON       TX   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASE TOUR GROUP REPORTS TORNADO NORTHWEST OF
            THROCKMORTON BETWEEN 554 PM AND 556 PM. TORNADO BECAME
            RAIN-WRAPPED AFTER 556 PM.

&&

PMCCULLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1202 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

TXZ076-078-091800-
CROCKETT TX-SUTTON TX-
1202 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR CROCKETT
AND SUTTON COUNTIES...

AT NOON CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 12 MILES SOUTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
163 AND RANCH ROAD 1973...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF JUNO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAY 163 ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF OZONA AT 1220 PM CDT...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

TXZ076-078-091900-
CROCKETT TX-SUTTON TX-
101 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR CROCKETT
AND SUTTON COUNTIES...

AT 1256 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 23 MILES WEST OF SONORA...OR ABOUT 20
MILES SOUTHEAST OF OZONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  I-10 NEAR THE CROCKETT-SUTTON COUNTY LINE BY 125 PM CDT
  THE INTERSECTION OF I-10 AND RANCH ROAD 1989 BY 140 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
214 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

TXZ113-114-127-128-092015-
SHACKELFORD TX-JONES TX-TAYLOR TX-CALLAHAN TX-
214 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR
SHACKELFORD...JONES...TAYLOR AND CALLAHAN COUNTIES...

AT 212 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 7 MILES WEST OF ALBANY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTH PART OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ABILENE THROUGH 240 PM CDT...
  ALBANY BY 225 PM CDT...
  FORT GRIFFIN BY 315 PM CDT...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
218 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

TXZ076-092015-
CROCKETT TX-
218 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR CROCKETT
COUNTY...

AT 216 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OZONA...OR ABOUT
23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHEFFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 2083 AND HIGHWAY 405 BY 225 PM CDT
  THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 163 AND RANCH ROAD 1973 BY 310 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.