Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1246 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

.AVIATION...
BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. MAIN FOCUS MAY WELL END UP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OOZING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND
AT NOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND EXPECT THAT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH INTO A
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS WILL REDEVELOP. RIGHT NOW...EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE KSJT TERMINAL BY 21Z...AND PERHAPS
SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE KSJT...KBBD...AND EVENTUALLY KJCT
TERMINALS BY 00Z. WILL RUN A TEMPO FOR STORMS AT THESE SITES. KABI
MAY END UP TOO FAR NORTH...AND KSOA TOO FAR SOUTHWEST...SO WILL
MENTION ONLY A VCTS AT THOSE SITES.

LOW CLOUDS MAKE A SURGE NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING...
SPREADING MVFR CEILINGS INTO MOST SITES ONCE AGAIN BY LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...KJCT AND
KSOA...MAY END UP FLIRTING WITH IFR CEILINGS BY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OF BKN015-025 EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BY LATE MORNING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007/
THIS AM...UPPER LOW MAIN STORY OVER TX PANHANDLE INTO W OK. WC TX
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STORM AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE LOW
AS IT EVER SO SLOWLY MOVES EWD...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE S CA COAST TO AIDE IN
CONTINUING POPS THROUGH LATE THU. THEN BY THE WEEKEND A STRONG
UPPER LOW DIPS DOWN FROM CA AND THE UPPER STREAM CREATING SRLY
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL SET UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
DISTURBANCES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING LIKE A RATHER WET FORECAST PERIOD FOR WC TX.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  79  63  81  63 /  40  30  30  40
SAN ANGELO  81  64  85  65 /  30  20  30  40
JUNCTION  81  64  84  66 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-022015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
304 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG SEVERAL OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF REACHING SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...COMBINING WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM...AND SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE STORMS MAY RAPIDLY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS...WITH FLASH FLOODING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

07