Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
248 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

.SHORT TERM...
WARM FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AT 2 AM...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FROM DEL RIO TO THE SOUTHERN CROCKETT COUNTY
LINE...MOVING NORTH. IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN UPPER
LOW...NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO A STERLING CITY...SWEETWATER...THROCKMORTON
LINE AROUND NOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7 AM
THIS MORNING TO 1 AM TONIGHT. EXPECT TRAINING AS CELLS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
FLOODING. CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG LIFT/INSTABILITY
WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. WRF 18Z SB CAPES ARE AROUND 2400
J/KG CENTERED OVER MENARD/MASON/EDEN AREA. WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ALSO
OUTLOOKED FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF ITS
AREA...WITH SLIGHT RISK OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...NORTH OF I-20.
LOW LCLS/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/AND MODERATE INSTABILITIES MEAN THAT
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEVERE STORMS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE BIG COUNTY MID AFTERNOON...EXITING
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...NEAR JUNCTION AND SAN SABA TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
MOST OF FLOODING/SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME...THOUGH EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES MAY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT SATURDAY...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
40S. MOISTURE DOES BEGIN MOVING BACK MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 61  46  72  52 /  90  70  10   0
SAN ANGELO 	 65  45  73  50 /  90  60   0   0
JUNCTION 	 70  51  76  46 /  90  80  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-
HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-
SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-
THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.

&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
747 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-311300-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
747 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER MOST
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THREATS ARE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. GOLFBALL HAIL HAS ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.

A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY NOON. THE AIR IS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG
THE FRONT...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GOLF BALL HAIL HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. LATER IN THE MID AFTERNOON...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY...THEN SOUTH INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 10 TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
702 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 AM     HAIL             OZONA                   30.71N 101.20W
03/30/2007  E0.75 INCH       CROCKETT           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
715 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 AM     HAIL             6 NNW OZONA             30.78N 101.25W
03/30/2007  E1.75 INCH       CROCKETT           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
731 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HAIL             2 SSW CHRISTOVAL        31.17N 100.51W
03/30/2007  E0.75 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
748 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 AM     HAIL             6 S CHRISTOVAL          31.11N 100.51W
03/30/2007  E1.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
749 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 AM     HAIL             3 W VANCOURT            31.34N 100.22W
03/30/2007  E1.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JJOHNSON